The July 23 Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul yielded no diplomatic progress, as both sides remain entrenched in incompatible positions. Both sides, however, found it important to demonstrate readiness for further communication and to continue the exchange of prisoners. Both Ukraine and Russia appear to be seeking to make an impression on the U.S. administration with their diplomatic maneuvers, and Moscow commentators say that the U.S. position is what ultimately determines the outcome of the conflict.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has doubled down on nuclear signaling to project strength abroad amid economic strain and sanctions. While Russia expands its submarine forces, cracks in its naval capacity and economic system mar the facade of strategic dominance. Expectations for the third round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul on July 23 had been very low, and the forty-minute-long talks delivered exactly that. Neither side showed any flexibility in their incompatible positions on the frameworks of a peace deal outlined in memos presented at the previous meeting on June 2 (RBC, July 22).
Both sides, nevertheless, found it important to show readiness for further communications and to continue the exchange of prisoners, relaxing the principle of equal numbers for the wounded and sick (Interfax, July 23). Ukraine sought to strengthen its proposition for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire by suggesting a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin in August, and the Turkish mediators appear eager to facilitate it (The Moscow Times, July 26). The Kremlin rejected this idea outright, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s opinion on this meeting as “possible” being published in official media (RIA Novosti, July 25).
Both parties appear to be seeking to make an impression on the U.S. administration with their diplomatic maneuvers, and Moscow commentators emphasize particularly that Trump did not appear irked by the poor outcome of the Istanbul talks (Nezavisimaya gazeta, July 24). The prevailing opinion is that Zelenskyy merely amplifies the stance of key European states, primarily Germany and the United Kingdom, which are firmly set on continuing the war, so speaking with him makes little sense (RIAC, July 18). Commentators argue that the U.S.
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