We are in a period of momentous change in the Middle East. The successes of Operation Midnight Hammer and the military activities leading up to it not only set back Iran’s nuclear program but also shattered the illusion that Iran is a reliable or capable protector for its proxies. Iran failed to assist Hamas in any meaningful way, with the civilians of Gaza suffering the terrible consequences of the war. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has been weakened, with the Lebanese state working towards reestablishing authority in the country. In Syria, while stability is fragile, a new government is in place. The United States has lifted sanctions to allow Syria a chance at recovery and reintegration into the region and, more broadly, the international community.
Iraq, too, stands at a turning point, with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) defeated five years ago and with upcoming elections that could further challenge Iranian influence and allow the country to chart a more independent path. The common thread is clear: Iran is no longer able to project disruptive power across the region to the extent it once did. Yet Iran is down, not out. History has handed us an opening. There is a strategic opportunity to set a new course for the Middle East, helping its people improve their lives, improving global stability, and realigning the war-torn countries of the region toward the United States.
But this opportunity cannot be secured 1 The opinions and conclusions expressed in this testimony are the author’s alone and should not be interpreted as representing those of RAND or any of the sponsors of its research. 2 RAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s mission is enabled through its core values of quality and objectivity and its commitment to integrity and ethical behavior.
RAND subjects its research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoids financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training.project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure.and pursues transparency through the open publication of research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence.
No comments:
Post a Comment