Nancy A. Youssef, Jonathan Lemire, and Missy Ryan
Elbridge Colby believes that China is the only country on the planet that has the ambition, resources, and military might to knock the United States off its pedestal as the world’s leading superpower.Most in President Donald Trump’s administration agree. But even by the standards of MAGA world, Colby is a divisive figure. And the Pentagon policy master’s prescription for how to counter China’s rise explains why. The only way to stop Beijing’s bid for global dominance, he has argued, is for the U.S. to pour everything it can into securing the Western Pacific, even if doing so comes at the expense of combatting Russia or maintaining U.S. influence in the Middle East.
That is, to remain superpowerful, the U.S. may need to temporarily stop superpowering. Colby didn’t always think this way. During Trump’s first term, he wrote a strategy document that advocated continuing to try to do it all, as superpowers do. But his attitude has evolved, and along the way, he has amped up the ire among his enemies—including fellow Republicans and U.S. allies abroad.Colby’s worldview was at the root of U.S. indecision this summer over whether to provide Ukraine with badly needed weapons.
When the U.S. military canceled an expected shipment late last month, catching even the White House off guard, the blame—and the credit—went to Colby.It was an unlikely moment in the spotlight for a policy wonk whose stances had, until recently, been little-noticed beyond the world of Beltway think tanks. Some on the right, including hawkish GOP senators, seized upon the decision as evidence that Colby should be ousted, and began pushing the White House to act. Others in the MAGA movement cheered the suspension—Tucker Carlson is a longtime Colby fan—and described the move as evidence of a truly “America First” national-security strategy.
Both wings of the movement were ultimately disappointed: Within days of the pause, Trump not only reversed it, he went a step further in providing new support to Kyiv. And far from being fired, Colby appears secure in his position at the Pentagon, his influence undiminished. In some ways, Colby personifies an ongoing shift within the Republican Party. Trump has moved away from positioning the U.S. as defender of the post–Cold War order and toward preserving its resources for threats that directly affect the U.S. homeland—with China at the top of the list.
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