The eruption of fighting between Thailand and Cambodia on 24 July may appear to have been sudden, but it was neither abrupt nor unforeseen. It was the product of a calculated build-up and was shaped as much by domestic politics and legacy ambitions as by maps and military strategy. On 28 July, the two countries agreed to a ceasefire, with breaches reported on 29 July. Throughout late 2024, Cambodia had been quietly upgrading access routes near disputed or strategically important border areas. In improving access, Cambodia was repeating its earlier tactics of shifting facts on the ground under the pretence of civilian or infrastructure development.
At the heart of the escalation are two entrenched political dynasties, Thailand’s Shinawatras and Cambodia’s Hun family. Once bound by personal and economic ties, the relationship has since fractured, with both parties using the border standoff to consolidate power and project strength. While a Cambodian protest in February at Prasat Ta Muen Thom is often cited as the spark of recent tensions, signs of escalation appeared months earlier. Military posturing has intensified on both sides, with Thai intelligence reportedly flagging increased Cambodian troop activity near Chong Bok, suggesting the confrontation may be not merely reactive but part of a longer-term strategy.
Data collected by ASPI analysts based on open-source intelligence identified 33 escalatory events attributed to Cambodia, compared with 14 attributed to Thailand, alongside nine joint de-escalatory efforts. While this article tracks military mobilisation on both sides, the limited availability of Cambodian reporting has restricted a comprehensive assessment of the conflict’s full dynamics. While Cambodia has been actively framing the transformation of Preah Vihear province—a border province home to the Preah Vihear temple, the subject of longstanding disputes—as economic revival through infrastructure, field observations suggest a dual-purpose shift.
Roadworks within or adjacent to Preah Vihear and troop movements near key areas coincide with major road upgrades—linking Phnom Penh to border flashpoints once considered remote. The locations that have been improved in recent years are directly tied to military positioning and strategic hilltops or access routes and drastically expand fortified Cambodian positions atop the plateau. These positions allow the Cambodian army to operate on level ground and, in some cases, from above the Thai army—a drastic tactical shift along much of the border.
No comments:
Post a Comment