Is NATO Sticking to Its New Defense Spending Goals?

Wilson Beaver and Adam Kurzweil

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As far as defense spending commitments go, NATO countries can be divided into four groups.

For decades, European countries have relied on the United States for NATO’s defense. Now, the status quo may be shifting—marking the beginning of a defense policy realignment toward a strong and capable Europe, and away from an alliance that freerides on American security guarantees.

In June, following pressure from President Trump, NATO countries formally committed to spending 5 percent of GDP on defense by 2035: 3.5 percent on “core” defense spending and 1.5 percent on “non-core” defense spending on bolstering critical infrastructure and civil preparedness.

Trump values Europe and wants to see it secure and prosperous. Recently, he has made several statements about his commitment to the future of Western civilization—a goal highlighted by his trip to the Vatican for Pope Francis’s funeral and his visit to Paris for the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.

The United States needs to pivot to the Indo-Pacific. That means its European allies must shoulder the main responsibility for Europe’s conventional defense—but America remains committed to NATO and will provide certain strategic enablers.

Luckily, Europe isn’t an impoverished region incapable of defending itself—the EU’s nominal GDP was roughly nine times larger than Russia’s in 2024, even without accounting for Britain, Turkey, and other non-EU NATO allies’ resources. If the Europeans get serious about military spending, they should be more than capable of defending themselves.

Some NATO countries are already pulling their weight or have announced plans to meet the new deadline well ahead of time. Others have announced detailed plans to increase defense spending by the 2035 deadline. Some have more vague plans to follow through on their commitment, though they still plan to reach the new goal by 2035. In last place is Spain, which refused the new target altogether. NATO allies can be divided into the following four categories: