Abraham M. Denmark and Charles Edel
In an era defined by accelerating great power competition, AUKUS—the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—stands as perhaps the boldest strategic declaration of the twenty-first century by the United States and its allies. As originally conceived, and as affirmed by multiple administrations and supported by the major parties in all three capitals, AUKUS was intended to strengthen deterrence, inject stability into the Indo-Pacific region, and bolster allied integration.
Now, nearly four years after it was first announced, AUKUS has reached a critical juncture. Some concerns have surfaced around the initiative’s viability in the wake of reports that the Pentagon plans to review the program. But questions about the future of AUKUS go beyond a single department’s report: The scale of the project’s ambition, coupled with the stakes at play for Washington, London, and Canberra, demand a sober assessment both of the agreement’s potential and the very real challenges it has faced in implementation.
Shoring up AUKUS and ensuring its success is therefore a strategic imperative.
Considering its geopolitical impact as well as the significant resources involved, a thorough review of AUKUS by the Trump administration is necessary. Should AUKUS fail or be scrapped, the United States would become less capable in the Indo-Pacific, its defense posture and diplomatic presence would become less deeply embedded, its international credibility would be dramatically undercut, deterrence would be undermined, and propaganda from Beijing and Moscow declaring the unreliability of American commitments would gain significant credibility. On the other hand, ensuring the success of AUKUS would boost the United States’ defense industrial base, strengthen its closest allies, send a powerful deterrent message to Beijing, and help stabilize the region. Shoring up AUKUS and ensuring its success is therefore a strategic imperative.
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