Lawrence Freedman
Donald Trump’s optimism that Putin was ready to meet directly with Zelenskyy to find a way to end the war did not last long. Moscow, disappointed that Trump failed to turn the screws on the Ukrainians, has now returned to its default strategy of procrastination. The Kremlin says that the two men might meet but only when the necessary conditions for peace have been reached: one might have assumed that the point of the meeting would be to create the conditions. It is not clear what further options exist for a diplomatic breakthrough and Trump might just walk away. Adding to Russian chagrin, some progress has been made on security guarantees with a role for the US, even if minor, though all of this will only come into play in the unlikely event of a deal.
Which means that Ukraine must now keep fighting until Putin realises that he can’t meet his objectives by military or diplomatic means while the costs of trying to do so accumulate. One key priority must be to improve Ukraine’s defences against long-range drone and missile attacks, which are directed increasingly at civilians. Ukraine retaliates but, in contrast to Russia, the main focus of its long-range drone strikes recently has been Russia’s oil refineries. It has scored some substantial hits, taking out over ten percent of capacity, leading to shortages and long queues at petrol stations. It has also just unveiled a new long-range missile – the Flamingo – with a range of 3,000 km. I will return to this aspect of the war soon.
This post will consider the battle for Pokrovsk, which is important for the wider battle for Donetsk, the territory that Russia covets and which Trump suggested that Zelenskyy abandon to placate Putin. It has been in the headlines most recently because of a Russia breakthrough towards Dobropillia, north of the city, which now appears to have been thwarted. As I noted in my previous post, in arguing against proposals to concede Donetsk the Ukrainians put a big effort into countering the persistent narrative that they might as well give up this territory for the sake of peace because if they do not the Russians will press on and eventually take it by brute force.
The battle demonstrates how chaotic the fighting in Ukraine is now becoming, how different it is from standard perceptions of static lines, and why it will be incredibly challenging for Russian troops to achieve Putin’s objectives by force.
No comments:
Post a Comment