Andrew Latham
Key Points and Summary – Russia’s mass strike on Ukraine spilled into NATO airspace when 19 drones crossed from Belarus into Poland, forcing intercepts and an Article 4 consultation.
-Warsaw, backed by allied F-35s, ISR and German Patriot units, downed multiple drones but stopped short of triggering Article 5.
U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. John Ryan, 555th Fighter Squadron F-16 Fighting Falcon pilot, prepares to take off for a routine training flight at Aviano Air Base, Feb. 17, 2022. The flights will support NATO’s enhanced air policing mission; integrate with allies and partners in the Black Sea region in an increased defensive posture along NATO’s border and to reinforce regional security. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Brooke Moeder)
-Analysts see a deliberate probe of integrated air defenses, a salami-slice test of resolve, and exploitation of ambiguity via Belarus.
-The real danger is escalation by accident—debris casualties, mistaken identity, or a panicked shot. The prudent course is firm interceptions, redlines and layered air defense, paired with restraint to deter further tests without stumbling into war.
Russia and NATO: War Coming Soon?
In the early hours of September 10, 2025, nineteen Russian military drones violated Polish airspace before being downed. Airports in Warsaw, Rzeszów, Lublin, and Modlin were closed, and parts of a downed drone struck a residential building in the Lublin region.
Nobody was injured, but the incursion forced NATO for the first time into direct kinetic confrontation with Russia. The direct political effect of the violation of Poland’s airspace was that it provoked Warsaw to invoke Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which allows any member to request consultation if its territorial integrity or security is threatened.
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