Pawan Deshpande
Weakening America-India ties are not only a diplomatic error, they will likely prevent the country from doing well in the event of a new war.
India’s deepening ties with Russia and China are more than a diplomatic setback. They strike at the heart of America’s ability to prevail in the next major conflict. Without India as a manufacturing and strategic partner, the United States risks losing the kind of industrial edge that once made us unstoppable. Trade talks between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi may offer a reprieve, but only if Washington seizes the opportunity.
In World War II, America prevailed because of its industrial base. In the next one, it will fall short, and that’s why India matters. Between 1940 and 1945, American factories produced nearly 300,000 aircraft, 124,000 ships of all types, and 86,000 tanks. Ford retooled a plant for cars to one for bombers, turning out one B-24 an hour. General Motors shifted seamlessly to machine guns and engines. This adaptability, fueled by a vast labor pool of unemployed workers, immigrants, and women entering the workforce, was its decisive advantage.
That manufacturing prowess no longer exists in America. From pandemic supply shortages to depleted missile stockpiles in Ukraine and chronic naval shipbuilding delays, its industrial fragility is now undeniable. If the United States faces a multi-theater conflict with a peer adversary tomorrow, its factories can’t keep pace.
Its workforce problems are just as acute. Skilled machinists, welders, and technicians are retiring faster than they can be replaced. Defense contractors already face shortages for current projects, let alone the surge capacity a major war would require. Restrictive immigration policies have left us without the skilled labor that once fueled its wartime industries.
These weaknesses would be troubling in any era, but they are especially dangerous now, as the nature of war itself is changing. The Ukraine conflict has made clear what the next era of war will look like. Drone warfare is more about scale than sophistication. Inevitably, swarms of cheap drones can overwhelm even the best defenses. Victory will go to the country that can produce the most drones at the lowest cost. On this front, China already dominates. China holds a 70 percent share of the global drone market, and its manufacturers depend on Chinese components.
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