James Cook
Key Points and Summary – The U.S. exit from Afghanistan in 2021 ended a long war, but great-power competition revived interest in Bagram Air Base.
-President Trump now signals a push to regain access, citing proximity to China.
-Kabul’s defense chief rejected any deal, though the foreign ministry left the door ajar.
-Washington could leverage humanitarian aid, release frozen assets, restore banking connectivity, lift travel bans, or even consider recognition to win Taliban consent.
-Pakistan’s influence—and its ties to both Washington and Beijing—will be pivotal, while China’s investments and BRI court Kabul to say no.
-Expect a hard trade-off: strategic access versus human rights concerns.
Bagram Air Base 2.0?
On Aug. 31, 2021, grainy images of the last U.S. soldier boarding a C-17 military transport aircraft leaving Afghanistan marked the end of a two-decade “Global War on Terror.”
Senior military leaders have called America’s longest war a “strategic failure,” and as the United States closed this painful chapter, national strategies shifted back toward geopolitics, focusing on emerging great powers and strategic competitors.
Under the Afghanistan Peace Agreement negotiated in February 2020, the United States agreed to withdraw from all bases in the country. However, in an intriguing twist, President Donald Trump recently discussed the return of Bagram Air Base to United States’ control, because of its location “an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons.”
U.S. Army Sgt. 1st Class Ricky Bryant is last in line to board a C-130H2 Hercules aircraft at Bagram Air Base, Afghanistan, for a flight to Forward Operations Base Salearno, Afghanistan, on March 8, 2006. The aircraft and crew are assigned to the 185th Airlift Squadron, Will Rogers World Airport, Oklahoma Air National Guard and are deployed to the 774th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron, Bagram Air Base.
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