Gulf Countries Need to De-Risk Their Relationship with the U.S.

James Durso

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An Israeli strike on a Hamas delegation in Qatar strained U.S. guarantees to Gulf allies.

The recent attack raised questions about Washington’s reliability and prompted calls for strategic diversification of partnerships.

Gulf states are looking beyond the U.S. to China, Russia, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan for defense and technology ties.

On 9 September, Israel attacked Qatar, a U.S. ally that was hosting a Hamas delegation that was considering a peace proposal from U.S. President Donald Trump. Israel killed three low-ranking officials, a child of a delegation member, and a Qatari security officer. The targeted officials survived.

The White House claimed Trump wasn’t notified in advance by Israel and learned of the attack from the Pentagon, though Israeli sources claim he was notified in advance. Trump ordered his crisis negotiator, Steve Witkoff to alert Doha, but Witkoff’s call came too late.

The attack and Trump’s casual reaction underlined what Al-Akhbar called “The Myth of US Guarantees” and highlighted a world where some American allies are “more equal than others.”

In the Middle East, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, New Zealand, Qatar, and Tunisia are Major Non-NATO Allies which used to mean something. America isn’t leaving the Middle East, but the first order of business for its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies is how to “de-risk” the American relationship and work towards “strategic diversification.”

First, find new partners. The U.S. stood aside when Israel attacked Qatar, so the tens of billions of dollars to U.S. defense contractors, and the free use of military bases, were for nothing when it counted, so the region should supplement the U.S. relationship.

We saw the first instance with the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan defense pact that makes Islamabad’s nuclear capabilities available to the kingdom, and other petrostates may soon follow suit. Pakistan is the “P” in CPEC, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Beijing’s US$65 billion regional connectivity project. China is already Pakistan’s top arms supplier, so the defense pact will provide Islamabad with access to Chinese technology and Saudi money.