Sara Harmouch, and Abdullah Hayek
For decades, America’s role in the Gulf rested as much on trust as on power—the belief that hosting US forces guaranteed protection of sovereignty. That belief has now been shaken.
Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Doha came as a strategic shock to Hamas, to the United States, and to the Arab world. For Hamas, it may have eliminated senior figures who had taken refuge outside Gaza. For Qatar—a US Major Non-NATO Ally and the host of America’s Al Udeid Air Base, the largest Air Force installation in the Middle East and the forward headquarters of the US Central Command—it marked an unprecedented breach of sovereignty. And for Washington, it struck at the credibility of the security order it has long built in the Gulf.
America’s preeminent position in the Gulf rests on a simple bargain: Arab partners host US forces in exchange for deterrence against external threats and protection of sovereignty. That bargain now looks increasingly fragile. If Arab states conclude that Washington cannot or will not shield them from violations of sovereignty, US security guarantees decline in value, lessening America’s influence and opening the door for other partnerships. Russia and China are already positioned to exploit the gap, offering arms, energy, and diplomatic cover while presenting themselves as more respectful of Arab sovereignty. At the same time, regional powers may accelerate their drive for defense autonomy, with Turkey casting itself as both supplier and enabler. The strike in Doha, in other words, has implications far larger than its immediate target: it calls into question not just one alliance, but the very foundation of US dominance in the Gulf.
Israel’s Strike on Doha Showed the Limits of US Influence
Even as Qatar anchors the US military presence in the Gulf, trust in Washington’s willingness to defend its sovereignty had already begun to fray. Since 2003, Al Udeid has served as CENTCOM’s forward hub for America’s wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, housing over 10,000 personnel and projecting power across the Gulf, Levant, and South Asia. For Washington, Qatar offers a launchpad at the region’s crossroads. For Doha, on the other hand, the base has long functioned as a shield deterring rivals from direct confrontation. The base’s presence in Qatar proved invaluable during the 2017-2021 Gulf diplomatic crisis, in which three of Qatar’s neighbors severed relations and imposed trade embargoes—but stopped short of direct military intervention, in part due to concerns about how the US would respond.
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