Indian Strategic Studies: 01/16/26

16 January 2026

How is India Integrating Drones in its War-Fighting?

Maryam Raashed

Contemporary warfare is being increasingly revolutionized by the rise of drones as potent systems being integrated into military arsenals. Drones are quickly becoming lucrative because of their cost-effectiveness, their ability to substitute costly larger tactical systems. This is because of their petite stature that facilitates easier use and creates space for defense innovation. New Delhi is looking to lead the way in drone integration into its military architecture by 2030. These goals have particularly gained momentum after recent conflict with Pakistan.

India’s race towards unmanned technologies has been an elaborate and extensive process characterized by efforts towards both qualitative and quantitative enhancements in India’s drone inventories. Alongside autonomous technology, New Delhi is also conducting drone employment training and joint exercises to bolster their military effectiveness. While they had previously been employing drone in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance roles, the 2025 Pakistan-India conflict was the first instance of drone use in a combat context. This indicated that unmanned platforms are becoming increasingly central to New Delhi’s defense-related requirements and its transition to multi-domain warfare model.

Afghanistan Vs. Pakistan = Advantage India

Nayanima Basu

The current breakdown of ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan due to fierce cross-border fighting that has left several dead on both sides, has severely impacted the trading relationship between the two countries. The trade war, which began after the so-called ceasefire was declared in October, has pushed Kabul to look at other partners like India, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to diversify its trade and boost its sagging economy. Before the borders were arbitrarily closed by Pakistan the same month, truckloads of goods used to ply the roads with lorries regularly crossing the border checkpoints of Torkham in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Chaman in Balochistan. The lorries are now halted, Afghan markets have fallen silent while the lives and livelihoods of Afghan farmers, merchants and traders have been adversely impacted.

Islamabad cited Kabul’s use of heavy weaponry against Pakistan for its decision to close the border points. It didn’t stop Pakistan from doing the same, targeting Afghan border checkpoints when fierce clashes erupted between the two neighbours over the terrorist activities being carried out by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), on Pakistani soil.

When Nepal Decided to Support Naga Separatists from India in the UN

Rajeev Bhattacharyya

Among the lesser-known facts in the annals of insurgency in India’s Northeast is Nepal’s linkages with separatist outfits operating in the restive region. Such linkages were visible and well-known with the other neighbouring countries surrounding the border region, including Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan and China.

Declassified British Intelligence documents reveal that the Nepal government had decided to offer support to the Naga National Council (NNC)’s bid for Nagaland’s sovereignty in the United Nations.

“In June 1962 George Patterson reported that the Nepalese Government were willing to give written support to the Naga delegation at the United Nations, and in September 1963 David Astor was said to have approached Eire to raise the Naga problem at the United Nations,” says the document, which The Diplomat has accessed. Further, it mentions that “Michael Scott frequently advocated United Nations intervention in Nagaland but the Naga issue has not yet been raised at the General Assembly.”

Indian Foreign Policy Needs a Rethink in the Age of Trump

Shanthie Mariet D’Souza

India seems to have been relegated to the status of a second-tier country by the Trump administration. His periodic endorsement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi being a “good man” notwithstanding, the bilateral relationship has witnessed a severe dip. While the Quad is no longer an American priority, the U.S. decision to withdraw from a host of international organizations – including the International Solar Alliance (ISA), a body cofounded by and headquartered in India – continues to diminish the forums in which both countries can work together. With a trade treaty still far from fruition, the once-promising India-U.S. strategic partnership appears to be little more than a mirage.

One would have hoped for 2026 to begin on a better note than the previous year. However, in the first week of the new year, several shocks have been delivered by Trump: a possible 500 percent tariff on India due to its continuation of funding the Russian war chest by purchasing oil and an uncourteous reference by Trump regarding Modi’s alleged desperation to set up a meeting with him. Trump also referred, albeit wrongly, to the Indian frustration over the delay of the delivery of 68 Apache helicopters, although the total order of 28 Apaches has already been delivered. U.S. withdrawal from the ISA could have been an additional disappointment for India and a setback for global solar energy cooperation just as countries around the world are uniting in their efforts to deploy clean and affordable renewable power.

Why the Supreme Court’s Expansive Interpretation of India’s Terror Law Is Dangerous

Sudha Ramachandran

India’s Supreme Court last week denied bail to two student activists, Umar Khalid and Sharjeel Imam, accused in the alleged “larger conspiracy” case related to the 2020 Delhi riots. The two were arrested in 2020 under the Unlawful Activities [Prevention] Act (UAPA), India’s draconian anti-terror law, and provisions of the erstwhile Indian Penal Code, for allegedly being the “masterminds” of the February 2020 riots in northeast Delhi.

The riots left 53 people, mainly Muslims, dead, and more than 700 injured. This was the worst communal violence in Delhi since the anti-Sikh riots of 1984. Five other appellants — Gulfisha Fatima, Meeran Haider, Shifa Ur Rehman, Shadab Ahmed, and Mohammad Saleem Khan — who were also jailed under the UAPA in 2020, were granted bail under stringent conditions by the apex court.

The Geopolitics of Maduro’s Capture: China’s Future in Latin America Following Operation Absolute Resolve

Ryan C. Berg

When the Trump administration published its National Security Strategy (NSS) in December 2025, it ignited a debate about the extent to which the document would guide U.S. strategy. While the NSS is often a statement of intention and envisages the world U.S. administrations would like to see, this NSS’s emphasis on the Western Hemisphere as a strategic priority for the United States heralded the profound shifts currently underway in U.S. foreign policy. And less than one month after the document’s release, President Trump launched Operation Absolute Resolve, an extraordinary military operation to capture the erstwhile Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, whisking them to the United States to face charges of drug trafficking and weapons possession stemming from a 2020 indictment.

The daring gambit, which reminded the world that Trump has a knack for using force in surprising ways, was a dramatic display of power in the United States’ own neighborhood, while the tactical success and the flawless execution of the operation itself surely rank among the annals of special operations lore.

Shaksgam Valley: New India-China flashpoint and Pakistan's 'illegal' handover

Over a year after India and China reached a deal to end a protracted military standoff in eastern Ladakh, a fresh border tussle seems to be brewing over Shaksgam Valley in Jammu and Kashmir. The recent sharp exchange between India and China over the Shaksgam Valley has brought into renewed focus the strategically vital 5,000 sq km tract that New Delhi maintains was illegally ceded by Pakistan to China in 1963. With China already building key infrastructure in the valley as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPRC), it has raised concerns of the two all-weather friends sandwiching Indian positions.

Situated close to the Siachen Glacier in the eastern Karakoram range, the Shaksgam Valley, also known as the Trans Karakoram Tract, borders China's Xinjiang region in the north and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) in the south and west. What seems to have India on its toes is China's construction of an all-weather road in the valley. Nearly 75 km of the road, around 10 metres wide, has reportedly been completed

Iran: Is This a Revolution?

Nazee Moinian

Whether Iran is in the mid stages of a revolution, or warming up for a future one, the regime is on an existential brink.

As the country enters its third week of uprisings the mullahs have shut down the internet and even landlines. Nevertheless, shocking images have been trickling into the western media outlets following this weekend’s bloodbath.

Families are seen walking around littered bodies trying to identify their loved ones. “I am not afraid…I have been dead for forty-seven years,” says an elderly Iranian woman unaware or unbothered by the blood streaming down her mouth as she continues her march with tens of thousands of others.

From Steam to Sats: Energy and Bitcoin Strategy to Win the 21st Century

Steven Biebel

The intersection of thermodynamics and economics is the realization that nearly all metrics of quality of life can be simplified to ever-increasing energy expenditure per capita. From horses to coal to fossil fuels, the efficient development and consumption of these fuels led the relatively small nations of Western Europe to transform into civilization-defining super and hyperpowers that have culminated in our 21st-century American experience.

This American way of life—and the quality of life it provides—is currently under siege by the ascendant Axis of Autocracy and its formalizing Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, et al (BRICS+) alliance against the Western liberal financial system. The downstream effects of this strategic challenge are seen in daily life across the United States, with supply chain bottlenecks, inflation, and rising debts and energy prices among a myriad of resultant and related social ills. Electricity prices, in particular, have been rising greatly in the United States, and the American power grid is an extremely complex system-of-systems that is under siege simultaneously by both the insatiable demands of hyperscaler data centers running artificial intelligence (AI) models and the threat of foreign actor meddling.

Choke Points: Critical Minerals and Irregular Warfare in the Gray Zone

“For the last decade, the West has slowly awakened to the reality of resource insecurity. We read breathless headlines about the ‘scramble for Africa’ and the rush to stake claims on lithium deposits in the Nevada desert. But this awakening has birthed a dangerous strategic error—what I term ‘The Mining Fallacy.’ This is the mistaken belief that “resource security” is synonymous with ‘access to mines’…This is a fatal oversimplification.”

“The true center of gravity in modern economic warfare is not the mine. It’s the refinery…By controlling between 85% and 90% of the world’s processing capacity for rare earths, Beijing has constructed a “kill switch” for Western industrial and defense supply chains.”

Is Trump Unleashing A War For Oil?

Clifford F. Thies

In his press conference on January 3 concerning the arrest of Venezuelan “narco-dictator” Nicolas Maduro, President Donald Trump talked about US oil companies restoring the former productivity of Venezuela’s oil industry and using that money for 1) compensation for the nationalization of the industry a couple decades ago; and, 2) (somehow) benefiting the people of Venezuela.

First, regarding the fall in the productivity of Venezuela’s oil industry, production fell from a peak of 3 million barrels a day twenty years ago to less than half a million barrels a day recently.

This fall in oil production reflects the long-term effects of the nationalization of the industry. When he nationalized the industry, Hugo Chavez looked at Venezuela’s oil industry as a source of funds to provide relatively generous welfare benefits to the urban poor of the country, assuring that he would win re-election.

What Are The Options, Military Or Otherwise, The US Has To Use Against Iran?

Ray Furlong

US military action against Iran appears to be back on the policy agenda in Washington amid the increasingly deadly crackdown on protesters in cities and towns across the country.

Unconfirmed reports say that more than 500 people have been killed — some rights groups say the death toll may be several times higher — in suppressing the uprising, one of the biggest challenges to clerical rule since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The demonstrations were sparked by spiraling inflation and a freefall of the currency, but have since turned into a broader protest against the country’s authorities.

Both Washington and Tehran have signaled that they are open to talks. But US President Donald Trump has said action may be taken anyway given reports of the brutal actions against protesters.

“We might meet with them. A meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what is happening before the meeting,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on January 11.

Managed Rivalry Or Strategic Reset Between China And The U.S.?

James Durso

The Chinese are nothing if not persistent.

In December 2025, Wu Xinbo, Dean, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University and advisor to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, used the pages of Foreign Affairs, to propose a “grand bargain” between China and America.

Wu argues that U.S.–China relations have reached a pivotal moment that requires a comprehensive reset to prevent long?term confrontation. He proposes starting with economic cooperation—easing U.S. technology restrictions and increasing Chinese market access—while managing geopolitical tensions in Asia and exercising mutual restraint over Taiwan. He believes both countries must clarify their roles in the international order and accept coexistence to stabilize the relationship.

The ‘Donroe Doctrine’ reaches the Arctic

Charlie Edwards

Ever since Republicans introduced the Make Greenland Great Again Act in January 2025, authorising the president of the United States to open talks with Denmark on acquiring Greenland, Donald Trump has kept up the pressure on Copenhagen, even suggesting he might take the island by force. But Washington cannot override Greenlandic consent or Danish sovereignty without incurring lasting strategic costs.

Following the operation that captured Venezuela’s then-president, Nicolás Maduro, on 3 January 2026, United States President Donald Trump has intensified pressure on Denmark over Greenland. Against this backdrop, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Greenland’s Minister for Statehood and Foreign Affairs, Vivian Motzfeldt, travel to Washington this week to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio for trilateral talks on the island’s future. The meeting comes as the Trump administration elevates hemispheric defence, the organising principle underpinning the US 2025 National Security Strategy, to focus on the Western Hemisphere, even as the Arctic case is more being built through political messaging than underpinned by strategy.

Shock and Awe in Caracas: What Comes Next?

Paul J. Saunders, and Vanessa Neumann

The stunning US raid that removed Nicolás Maduro from power has upended Venezuela’s political landscape and forced Washington to confront what comes next. Rather than immediately pushing for regime change, the Donald Trump administration appears to be testing a pressure-and-incentives strategy, using sanctions relief, oil production, and economic access as leverage to shape the behavior of the remaining leadership.

Can this approach actually deliver meaningful political reform in Caracas, or will regional stability and US energy interests take precedence over Venezuela’s democratic transition? How do Venezuelans and the people of the region think about the end of Nicolas Maduro’s time in power? And what does the dramatic change in Caracas’ leadership mean for Cuba?

Are U.S. Operations in Venezuela a Blueprint for China for Taiwan?

Bonny Lin

Immediately after the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, commentators questioned whether “Operation Absolute Resolve” could serve as a textbook example or template for other countries to copy. Trending on Chinese social media were calls by Chinese netizens for Beijing to replicate the same military operation and arrest the leader of Taiwan. Some argued that such a move could quickly “solve” Beijing’s Taiwan problem.

This Experts React assesses whether China can successfully engage in a similar operation against Taiwan and what leading experts in Taiwan view as key lessons learned and implications of the U.S. military operation.

The Mission to Extradict Nicholas Maduro

Bill Connor

On January 3, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice, supported by the U.S. military, arrested and exfiltrated Venezuelan Dictator, Nicholas Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Florez. The arrest took place in the middle of the night at the guarded compound where Maduro and his wife were sleeping.

Based on publicly available information, the U.S. Army’s 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment-Delta (1st SFOD-D)—better known as Delta Force, or Combat Applications Group (CAG)—made the actual arrest jointly with DOJ agents. According to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan “Raizin” Caine, OPERATION ABSOLUTE RESOLVE had been months in the planning and involved all branches of the Armed Forces, as well as the Intelligence Community and Federal partners like DEA and DOJ.

US Space Command Taps SpaceX for Missile Warning, Tracking Satellites

Giulia Bernacchi

The US Space Systems Command has awarded SpaceX contracts to launch new missile warning and tracking satellites into low-Earth orbit. The launches will support the Space Development Agency (SDA) and the National Reconnaissance Office as they build satellite constellations designed to detect and follow advanced missile threats from space.

Worth $739 million, the orders fall under the Pentagon’s National Security Space Launch program, which uses commercial rockets to reduce costs for missions with flexible requirements.

The Launches

The order includes three sets of missions.

The first, known as SDA-2, covers two launches carrying a total of 18 Tracking Layer satellites built by L3Harris, and a separate launch carrying eight Fire-control On Orbit-support-to-the-war Fighter (F2) Space Vehicles manufactured by Millennium Space Systems.

The Middle East’s Top Challenges in 2026

Seth J. Frantzman

The new year in the Middle East has seen several slow-burning conflicts erupt. These include conflicts in Yemen and Syria, as well as internal protests in Iran. In addition, unresolved conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively, keep the region on edge. Further afield, civil wars persist in Sudan and Libya.

The major question that hangs over the region is whether a coalition of states, many of them aligned with the United States, can stem these ongoing conflicts. Many of these low-level conflicts have resulted from Iran’s declining power in the region, as other countries and groups seek to fill the vacuum.

Most of the low-level conflicts in the region have deep roots and have led to decades of division. For instance, Yemen has been divided between the Iranian-backed Houthis and rival groups backed by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. This has led to a three-sided conflict that erupted in late December 2025 as the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) clashed with the Saudi Arabia-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). Now it appears that the PLC, which represents the internationally recognized government of Yemen, has the upper hand, and the UAE is backing off its support for the STC.

Europe’s year of existential risk

Mujtaba Rahman

External pressure from Russia is mounting in Ukraine, China is undermining the EU’s industrial base, and the U.S. — now effectively threatening to annex the territory of a NATO ally — is undermining the EU’s multilateral rule book, which appears increasingly outdated in a far more transactional and less cooperative world.

And none of this shows signs of slowing down.

In fact, in the year ahead, the steady erosion of the norms Europe has come to rely on will only be compounded by the bloc’s weak leadership — especially in the so-called “E3” nations of Germany, France and the U.K.

Is Cuba Next?

Robert Farley

Synopsis: Following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, analysts are questioning whether Cuba will be the next domino to fall. -The Havana regime faces an existential crisis as the U.S. moves to cut off vital Venezuelan oil and financial aid, exacerbating an economy that has already contracted by 4%.

-With Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and the Trump administration viewing the collapse of the Castro legacy as a foreign policy “trophy,” the U.S. is expected to ramp up economic pressure and destabilization efforts against the vulnerable island nation.

How the Donald Trump Corollary Takes on a Chinese Reality in South America

James P. Rubin, and Darjan Vujica

The visuals were undeniably cinematic with Nicolas Maduro, the former president of Venezuela, handcuffed on a tarmac, as the decisive climax to a years-long pressure campaign. For a White House that prizes television-ready victories, the raid certainly demonstrated the United States’ power to dictate events in our hemisphere. Yet, as the initial high fades, Washington is waking up to a more sobering reality. By taking such direct action, the Donald Trump administration has now assumed responsibility for the political, economic, and security consequences that follow.

As the cliché goes, only time will tell whether US policy in Venezuela will be successful. In the meantime, other events are taking place that demonstrate why Venezuela should not be the overwhelming focus of American diplomacy in the region. The administration risks becoming consumed by the mechanics of a post-Maduro Venezuela—managing transition councils, securing oil fields, and navigating the unpredictable fallout. All of this will demand extraordinary time and resources. While Washington is bogged down in Caracas, Beijing is quietly taking over the rest of the continent, unchallenged.

Donald Trump wants to make imperialism great again

Hayes Brown

The isolationism that President Donald Trump seemed to espouse in his first term has taken a backseat to an unbridled machismo on the world stage. Trump is still pulling back from non-military foreign engagement, as seen in this week’s withdrawal from dozens of international agencies, but in the aftermath of the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, it is impossible to ignore the White House’s heightened aggression.

This is the work of an unabashed empire. Journalist Spencer Ackerman marveled after Maduro’s capture at how “rarely in the era of mass media has U.S. imperialism been as unsubtle or as blatant.” There’s been no need to hide behind claims of protecting human rights or safeguarding against threat to American lives. The pretense of needing to prevent the flow of drugs into America that justified the preceding attacks on drug boats swiftly melted away in favor of a naked grab for resources

Why Greenland Matters

George Friedman

U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded that Denmark turn Greenland over to the United States. This raises the question of why Greenland matters. It’s true that Greenland has some natural resources, including rare earths, that would benefit whoever controls them, but it’s also true that the island is strategically and militarily important – and this latter point is far too often overlooked.

During the Cold War, NATO had a contingency plan whereby, in the event of a Soviet invasion, it would block Moscow’s advance to the west while keeping open German and French ports on the Atlantic. The strategic logic was that the U.S. would use these ports to reinforce and resupply the troops it already had in Europe. The reinforcements – and especially the logistical support – were the basis of winning a prolonged conflict with the Soviet Union because in Washington the belief was that the longer such a conflict dragged on, the more likely it was that Moscow would lose. In short, NATO’s strategy to block an initial Soviet attack depended on a foundation of reinforcements and resupply.

The Myth of the AI Race Neither America Nor China Can Achieve True Tech Dominance

Colin H. Kahl

In July, the Trump administration released an artificial intelligence action plan titled “Winning the AI Race,” which framed global competition over AI in stark terms: whichever country achieves dominance in the technology will reap overwhelming economic, military, and geopolitical advantages. As it did during the Cold War with the space race or the nuclear buildup, the U.S. government is now treating AI as a contest with a single finish line and a single victor.

But that premise is misleading. The United States and China, the world’s two AI superpowers, are not converging on the same path to AI

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