Indian Strategic Studies: 02/04/26

4 February 2026

What We Know About the India-U.S. Trade Deal

Rishi Iyengar

India and the United States have reached a trade agreement after months of negotiations, according to social media posts from U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday.

Trump first announced the deal on Truth Social with a flurry of provisions, including that India had agreed to “stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.” India’s continued purchases of Russian oil after the beginning of the war in Ukraine have long been a sore point for Washington and for Trump in particular, with the U.S. president slapping an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods over those oil purchases. Since encountering pressure from the White House in recent months, New Delhi had already been reducing its purchases of Russian crude. Trump’s push for India to buy more from Venezuela reflects not only his desire to tap into the South American country’s oil market—after he ordered the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro—but also to ensure global crude prices stay relatively low.

India-EU FTA: Some Challenges Ahead, but Strategic Signal Is Clear

Rushali Saha

On January 27, India and the European Union concluded free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations. Both European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and India’s Trade Minister Piyush Goyal have described it as the “mother of all deals,” highlighting its significance. This is the largest trade agreement that both the EU and India have ever concluded.

As part of the agreement, the EU will eliminate tariffs on over 90 percent of tariff lines and 91 percent in terms of value. Both sides agreed to partially liberalize a significant additional number of lines, effectively bringing the overall coverage of trade liberalization to 96.6 percent for India and 99.3 percent for the EU. It is expected to double EU exports to India by 2032. India, on its part, has secured preferential access to the European markets across 97 percent of tariff lines, covering 99.5 percent of trade value.

Bangladesh’s Stalled Student Revolution

Cyrus Naji

When she was sentenced to death by a court in Dhaka last November, Sheikh Hasina Wajed, the ousted prime minister of Bangladesh, was typically defiant. From the New Delhi bungalow allotted to her by the government of India, she said she was “very proud” of her “record on human rights and development.” But as Bangladeshis took to the streets to celebrate the verdict, which after all was symbolic, they remembered a very different legacy.

Hasina first served as prime minister from 1996 to 2001, then came to power again in 2009. Over the subsequent fifteen years, according to the Bangladeshi human rights organization Ain o Salish Kendra, her security forces carried out two thousand extrajudicial killings. They abducted more than 1,800 people and detained them in a network of secret sites known as Aynaghor, or the House of Mirrors. (A commission investigating these disappearances believes that the real figure may be two to three times greater.) Relying on brute force and a pliant judiciary, Hasina launched an assault on the country’s main opposition parties, the center-right Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the hard-line religious Jamaat-e-Islami. She brought more than two million court cases against these political opponents, who proved unable to organize any effective opposition. Few public figures dared to criticize her openly; people of all classes and backgrounds had been disappeared for less.

China’s Emerging Two Front Problem

Mengzhen Liu

Months after the Japan-Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) entered into force on September 11, 2025, Tokyo and Manila signed a new logistical agreement on January 15, 2026. The Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) sets forth a bilateral framework for reciprocal provision of supplies and services between the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (SDF) and the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).

According to the newly inked defense pact, the SDF and AFP may provide food, water, billeting, transportation (including airlift), petroleum, oils and lubricants, clothing, communication/storage/repair and maintenance/airport and seaport services, as well as ammunition, among others, to the other party upon request. The supplies can be provided during activities including joint exercises and training, United Nations peacekeeping missions, overseas evacuation of the two countries’ citizens, or communication and coordination of other routine activities.

Understanding China’s Quest for Quantum Advancement

Hideki Tomoshige and Phillip Singerman

In the rapidly evolving landscape of quantum technology, every nation and major player has opportunities to lead in distinct areas and secure a share of the immense benefits expected over the next decade. Such opportunities would present major benefits for the economies and national security of the dozens of countries currently investing strategically in quantum information science and technology (QIST) research and development (R&D). The coming years will determine not just who leads in the quantum field but also who shapes the standards, markets, and security architectures of the QIST era.

In this technological race, theoretical breakthroughs and advances in research will be just as crucial as practical, applied technical knowledge for countries and companies. In this technological race, theoretical breakthroughs and advances in research will be just as crucial as practical, applied technical knowledge for countries and companies. A comprehensive quantum ecosystem that balances deep scientific discoveries with the accumulation of practical technical know-how is required.

A Misreading of the Iranian Opposition

Ali Safavi

A recent article gets the measure of one of Iran’s resistance groups all wrong. As Iran’s streets fill with blood and fire, an essay recently published in The National Interest, titled “What’s Wrong with Iran’s Opposition?” appeared amid one of the most sustained uprisings in the Islamic Republic’s history. For more than three weeks, protests swept over 400 cities and towns. Thousands of protesters were killed, tens of thousands wounded, and as many as 50,000 detained as the regime deployed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Special anti-riot units, the Basij paramilitary, and plainclothes militias against unarmed civilians. Any serious assessment of Iran’s political future must begin with this reality.

Yet, the article’s core message is unmistakable: that no credible alternative to the ruling system exists, and that realism therefore requires looking inward, to factions within the same theocratic structure, for change. These claims warrant scrutiny because serious analysis requires distinguishing historical evidence from inherited accusations. By that standard, the article offers less a reassessment than a recycling of narratives shaped by earlier policy assumptions—many of them rooted in failed strategies of engagement with Tehran.

Risks to Gulf Energy Assets From an Iran Strike Will Be Much Higher

Greg Priddy

The risks of an Iranian strike on Gulf energy assets have frequently been dismissed as “crying wolf.” Is the wolf finally at the door? With President Donald Trump apparently again facing a near-term decision point on whether to launch military strikes on Iran, the world oil market has taken notice, with global benchmark Brent crude oil settling at over $70 per barrel, the highest since July. This came amid a rather bearish consensus expectation of excess supply and building inventories this year. That reaction, which is still up only about 10 percent on concerns about Iran, seems justified, as there are plenty of reasons to see the risk of an actual supply disruption taking place as being significantly higher than in June, when Israel and Iran traded strikes for 12 days. The United States joined in on the last night of the campaign to hit hardened nuclear sites, which required bombs larger than what Israel could deliver.

The History of Supply Risk and Oil Prices. The relationship between perceptions of security-driven supply risk and oil prices has changed a bit since the shale boom began in the United States in the late 2000s. During the long price run-up on perceived scarcity in the mid-2000s, concerns related to Iran, pipeline bombings in Iraq, and outages in the Niger Delta in Nigeria frequently made substantial waves in the market. There were long periods when crude markets clearly carried a “risk premium” relative to where they would have been without those perceived risks, even if they had not yet materialized.

Where Are America’s Aircraft Carriers Now?

Peter Suciu

Although the US Navy has 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers in active service, only around half are deployed at any given time—with the rest in port or undergoing maintenance. The United States Navy operates the largest fleet of nuclear-powered supercarriers in the world. With 11 in active service, the US Navy has more aircraft carriers than the navies of China, the UK, India, France, Italy, and Spain—combined!

Yet, the status and actual “availability” of the 10 Nimitz-class and one Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers are not as cut-and-dry as they seem. Rarely are more than five or six deployed at a time.

Here is the current status of the US Navy’s aircraft carriers: USS Nimitz (CVN-68)Commissioned: May 3, 1975

Current Status: In Port (Bremerton, Washington); preparing for decommissioningThe US Navy aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN-68) underway in the Red Sea in 2013. The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group was deployed to the US 5th Fleet area of responsibility conducting maritime security operations and theater security cooperation efforts. (Wikimedia Commons)

What Is an Illegal Military Order?

Michael O’Hanlon

Lost in the controversy last year between the six Democratic members of Congress and President Donald Trump over whether American troops should obey the president unconditionally is a key question: what exactly constitutes an illegal military order, and how can we expect uniformed military personnel to distinguish between legal and illegal orders?

For context, it may be helpful to begin with a story from President Trump’s first term. During the summer and fall of 2017, US-North Korea relations deteriorated badly after a series of North Korean missile and nuclear tests. At one point, Trump and the North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-Un, exchanged nuclear threats, with Trump famously pointing out that his nuclear button was the larger of the two. The United States sent additional munitions and other supplies to the Korean peninsula and sent three aircraft carriers to the region.

Maintaining the Space Edge: Strategic Reforms for U.S. Dominance in Low Earth Orbit

Taylar Rajic, Lauryn Williams, and Matt Pearl

In recent years, technological innovation has supplanted traditional factors, such as the size of military forces and regional hegemony, as the foundational element of national power—and therefore as the key determinant of great power competition. The emergence of technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), advanced robotics, and quantum computing has made technology a driver of economic growth and security, as well as a transformational element in the national security environment and the modern battlefield. It is no longer enough to lead in one of these technologies individually; rather, the United States, along with its allies and partners, needs a full stack—a complete set of technologies needed to build and deploy critical systems—that integrates and leverages multiple technologies together.

However, the United States cannot adequately leverage a full technology stack unless it has advanced, secure, and resilient digital infrastructure—the modern networks and computing facilities on which AI applications and other data ride. These networks underpin the modern financial system, economic growth, social services, access to information, education, public safety, and national security. In the United States and across many of its allies and partners, the private sector owns and controls most of this infrastructure. Leveraging industry is the right approach, as companies are in a better position than government to build, operate, and innovate quickly on digital infrastructure. For their part, policymakers must prioritize digital infrastructure innovation and engage on critical policy and regulatory issues to ensure that the United States and its allies and partners have a robust, dynamic, competitive, trusted, and secure digital ecosystem.

Trump’s Board of Peace Will Help Strong Countries Dominate Weak Ones

Dana El Kurd

The Trump administration recently declared that Phase 1 of the cease-fire agreement between Hamas and Israel was over and that the work of Phase 2 would begin. This came as a surprise to Palestinians, and to many observers of the region, given that none of the 20 points in the plan laid out at the beginning of the cease-fire had been realized on the ground—aside from the return of Israeli hostages.

For instance, Israel has allowed some aid in—but not at the levels required to offset hunger and malnutrition or to sustain reconstruction. Violence has not ended either; since the cease-fire was announced last October, more than 480 Palestinians have been killed, including at least 100 children, and thousands more injured in Israeli attacks. Most recently, three journalists were killed in what a relief group described as a targeted attack.

The Technocratic Turn That’s Giving Me Hope for Gaza

David Ignatius

The reason to take Gaza reconstruction seriously isn’t the glossy rendering of a future beachfront resort displayed last week at Davos, but a gray-haired Palestinian civil engineer named Ali Shaath, who will head the “technocratic committee” that next week will begin the long process of rebuilding what has been hell on earth.

“It’s my responsibility to turn this moment into action, to restore order, to rebuild institutions, and to create a future for the people of Gaza,” Shaath said in a video address to the Davos, Switzerland, rollout of the Board of Peace that will oversee the transition. He then switched to Arabic to address Gazan Palestinians: ”You have remained steadfast and preserved your families and your land,” he said, but now is the time “not for looking backward but moving forward.”

Will Human Rights Survive the Donald Trump Era?

Philippe Bolopion

Human rights are never ensured. The freedoms we hold dear were won—piece by piece—after the catastrophes of the 20th century, when governments accepted, however imperfectly, that state power should be constrained by law, institutions, and a shared baseline of human dignity. Today, that architecture is buckling. Under relentless pressure from President Donald Trump’s administration, and long undermined by China and Russia, the rules-based order that helped make human rights enforceable is fraying fast.

Can human rights survive without the rules that established them? They can, but not by clinging to a collapsing status quo. They will survive only if we build something new: a durable human rights alliance that defends core norms (even when a superpower defects), and makes repression costly.

It is now 85 seconds to midnight: 2026 Doomsday Clock Statement

John Mecklin

Record-breaking climate trends continued in 2024 and 2025. Globally averaged temperature in 2024 was at the warmest level in 175 years of record-keeping. Likewise, atmospheric carbon dioxide—the greenhouse gas most responsible for human-caused climate change—reached a new high of 152 percent of 1750 levels. The oceans continue to absorb about 90 percent of the heat added by climate change, and globally averaged sea surface temperatures are the warmest in the modern satellite and buoy record. The Conejeres Glacier in Colombia was declared extinct, and all glaciers in Venezuela have joined a long list of glaciers that are endangered or have disappeared. With the addition of freshwater from melting glaciers and thermal expansion, global averaged sea level rise reached the highest level in the satellite record of sea level, which began in 1993.

The hydrologic cycle, energized by the warm temperatures, became erratic, with deluges and droughts hopscotching around the globe. Large swaths of Peru, the Amazon, southern Africa, and northwest Africa experienced droughts, while the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southeast Brazil received record rainfall, and extensive floods occurred in Congo River Basin. Parts of Asia and Central Europe were also wetter than normal while Canada experienced both its hottest and driest year on record. “An estimated 3.6 billion people face inadequate access to water at least one month per year and this is expected to increase to more than 5 billion by 2050,” according to the UN, and the world is falling far short of the UN Sustainable Development Goal set for water and sanitation.

East Asia Semiconductors Will Decide The Next US-China Arms Race – Analysis

Anna Matilde Bassoli and Savannah Taylor

As US-China competition grows, emerging military technologies could shift the balance of power. Underlining this rivalry are semiconductors, without which neither side can truly master modern warfare. Whoever secures the most resilient supply chain will prevail in this race to become the next superpower.

The global semiconductor industry is geographically concentrated in East Asia, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan leading in manufacturing, although the United States and the EU also hold significant stakes. Amid China’s continuous pressure on Taiwan and a trade war that is reshaping the industry, the United States is pushing to boost domestic production and kick the ladder out from under China. Yet these efforts actually risk boosting China’s standing instead of damaging it.

Why the Golden Dome Doesn’t Need Greenland

William D. Hartung

One of President Donald Trump’s latest arguments for annexing Greenland is that it is essential to plans for a leak-proof Golden Dome missile defense system. Earlier this month, the president said, “[a]ll we want from Denmark, for national and international security, [is] to keep our very energetic and dangerous potential enemies at bay [with] this land on which we’re going to build the greatest Golden Dome ever built.” The overarching problem is that strong evidence suggests that a flawless Golden Done system is physically impossible if it includes a commitment to block an ICBM attack. Such an attack could involve large numbers of warheads traveling at 15,000 miles an hour, embedded in untold numbers of decoys indistinguishable from actual warheads.

Since Ronald Reagan announced a similar goal in his 1983 Star Wars speech, the Pentagon has not even conducted a realistic test under such a scenario, much less built a system to carry it out. As Dr. Laura Grego of the Union of Concerned Scientists has pointed out, “Trump’s space-based interceptor shield is nothing but fool’s gold—shiny, but ultimately worthless.” Whether a part of the Golden Dome is based in Greenland or not, it will not work as advertised. If the president or the Pentagon secretly harbor more modest goals for the program, they should come clean and subject them to public and Congressional debate. Whatever form the Golden Dome ultimately takes, the administration has not made clear why having radars or interceptors in Greenland would make it any more effective.

Why NATO Won’t Collapse

Ramon Marks

NATO Europeans are reluctantly facing the fact that they must assume, after more than 75 years, the primary responsibility for their own defense under the NATO framework. They can no longer expect the United States to remain their overarching protector. The controversy over Greenland has even heightened concern that the United States may withdraw from the NATO alliance altogether.

The just-released 2026 National Defense Strategy, however, points to the opposite: the United States is not abandoning NATO. Roughly 80,000 US troops are based in Europe, and there is no indication that bases will be closed or that personnel and supplies will be returned to the United States. Ironically, the biggest military base in Germany is still American, not German. US forces remain fully engaged with European allies, whether conducting joint infantry maneuvers and operations in Poland and Latvia, or conducting sorties with NATO allies’ warships in the Baltic Sea or the Mediterranean. The United States has not gone quiet in NATO.

If NATO Dies, Long Live NEATO

Nathan Decety

The current American administration says it hopes to save Europe from itself, from the risk that mass immigration will cause “civilizational erasure.” Its initial intention was to support MAGA-inclined parties across Europe, but that idea may not survive the current political weather — President Trump’s nationalism, seen in statements suggesting European NATO troops had “stayed a little back from the front lines” in Afghanistan, clashes with the populist right’s need to appear patriotic, and has caused a significant backlash.

An alternative perspective, which now seems to be gathering impetus on both sides of the Atlantic, is that Europe must disentangle much of its security apparatus from America’s. The current administration no longer sees Europe as a value-adding contributors to its diplomatic and military power. It will now leave Europe mostly to fend for itself (some key enablers will remain) while maneuvering to take European territories. The continent needs to wake up.

PRC Targets NATO Frontline States - Jamestown

Anna J. Davis

Source Link

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is expanding its presence along the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) frontline through technology access, influence networks, and dual‑use infrastructure, creating openings that could weaken alliance cohesion and expose vulnerabilities in Europe’s defense posture.

NATO frontline states are responding to PRC‑linked cyber intrusions, surveillance‑capable consumer technologies, and intelligence‑driven infrastructure projects by tightening controls on data flows, restricting PRC technology in critical systems, and issuing broader security warnings to protect transatlantic defense networks.

The PRC cooperates with Russia, when convenient, in subversive activities against sensitive domains across NATO’s frontline. Ultimately, however, the PRC is not reliant on Russia to exploit NATO vulnerabilities and place sustained pressure on the infrastructure and information systems that underpin coordination across the Atlantic.

Pentagon Defends Restrictions on Media Outlets

Erik Wemple

In a court filing late Friday, the Pentagon defended the restrictions it imposed on media organizations in October, calling them a reasonable initiative to balance national security with media access. The filing came in response to a lawsuit filed in December by The New York Times. The purpose of the policy “is to secure the Pentagon and stop activity that could compromise national security,” the filing said, adding that the policy outlined “explicit and clear standards for conduct” at the Pentagon.

The rules require reporters to sign a 21-page form that sets restrictions on journalistic activities, including requests for story tips and inquiries to Pentagon sources. Reporters who don’t comply can lose their press passes. The restrictions replaced a far more streamlined set of rules.

In its complaint, The Times argued that the Pentagon policy violated the First Amendment rights of journalists, curbing their ability to “do what journalists have always done — ask questions of government employees and gather information to report stories that take the public beyond official pronouncements.” The newspaper also contended that the restrictions violated journalists’ Fifth Amendment rights to due process, because they granted the department “unfettered” discretion to revoke journalists’ press passes — even when they’re engaged in lawful news gathering activities.

Pentagon’s new ‘non-kinetic effects cell’ bolsters Gen. Caine’s goal to better integrate cyber into U.S. military operations

Jon Harper

Better weaving cyber capabilities into American military operations has been a priority for Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan “Razin” Caine. A new team has been set up at the Pentagon to do just that. Caine, the U.S. military’s top officer who was picked for the job by President Donald Trump, has highlighted the important role that digital tools played recently in major operations, like Operation Absolute Resolve and last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer in Venezuela and Iran, respectively.

During a Jan. 3 press briefing about the special operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, Caine noted that as commandos approached Venezuela’s shores in helicopters, the U.S. “began layering different effects” provided by U.S. Cyber Command, U.S. Space Command and other partners to “create a pathway” for them. “The word integration does not explain the sheer complexity of such a mission, an extraction so precise it involved more than 150 aircraft launching across the Western Hemisphere in close coordination, all coming together in time and place to layer effects for a single purpose, to get an interdiction force into downtown Caracas while maintaining the element of tactical surprise. Failure of one component of this well-oiled machine would have endangered the entire mission,” Caine said.

Why the Army Needs Deception Groups

Benjamin Jensen

Next Army is a collaborative series by CSIS Futures Lab and the Modern War Institute launched in honor of the U.S. Army’s 250th birthday and the Army Transformation Initiative. The commentaries explore how emerging technologies, organizational reforms, and major shifts in the strategic environment will shape the force of 2040 and beyond.

To survive on the modern battlefield, the U.S. Army needs to revive the use of “ghost armies”—deception units that support large-scale combined arms maneuver. The dual trends of low-cost persistent surveillance (i.e., the transparent battlefield) and precision mass mean that wherever the Army fights, ground units will be targeted by cheap drones and missile salvos. This combination of continuous fires and intelligence make it difficult both to deploy the force and conduct large-scale ground offensive campaigns. Yet, by integrating deception, the Army can disorient the enemy, sow doubt in their sensors, and reduce the efficacy of their fires.

Why Does the US Army Have an Air Wing?

Harrison Kass

Most of the US Army’s planes were spun off into the Air Force in 1947, but it continues to operate a handful of fixed-wing aircraft for logistics and ISR purposes. The US Army is synonymous with helicopters—but the service also operates a modest fixed-wing fleet. These aircraft are not geared for air superiority or strike missions—the Army long ago relegated those tasks to the US Air Force, spun off from the Army in 1947—but instead support command, logistics, intelligence, and mobility. Indeed, in an Air Force-dominated fixed-wing ecosystem, the Army stubbornly clings to a small fleet.

Before 1947, the US Army Air Forces controlled most of America’s military aviation. The creation of the US Air Force separated roles, with the Air Force taking on combat air power and strategic lift and the Army keeping organic aviation for ground forces. The Army also retained a fleet of fixed-wing aircraft for missions the helicopter couldn’t efficiently perform. Said succinctly, Army aircraft are tactical enablers, not independent combat assets—focused on supporting commanders on the ground, operating from austere or short runways, and facilitating rapid point-to-point movement. Specifically, the Army has utility and transport aircraft, (formerly) tactical airlift, and ISR aircraft.

EMP Weapons Expose PRC Military Vulnerability

Guermantes Lailari, Yu-cheng Chen, and Tin Pak

The Jiutian (九天) unmanned aerial system (UAS), the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) newest drone, made its first flight in December 2025. Capable of carrying a 6,000-kilogram payload, it was tested releasing 100 smaller loitering drones (Xinhua; CCTV, December 11, 2025). Akin to the rest of the PLA’s drone fleet, however, it remains to be seen whether it can withstand electromagnetic pulses (EMP) to counter it.

EMP weapons deliver pulses of radiation that induce electrical charges in conductive materials, which can disable or destroy electronic systems. While EMPs can be produced via nuclear or non-nuclear methods, non-nuclear EMPs are more targeted, with a narrower range, and focus on specific frequency bands. A recent article in PLA Daily notes that EMP weapons are rapidly moving from theory to reality, citing recent tests of prototype microwave-based counter-UAS systems and overseas trials that disabled large drone groups (PLA Daily, November 28, 2025). The article underscores the importance of EMP weapons as a speed-of-light, non-kinetic “electronics-kill” (以电能为主要“弹药”) option that can scale against drone swarms and other electronics-dependent targets. As the People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to electrify its civilian infrastructure, and the PLA continues to “informatize” (信息化) its operations, vulnerabilities to EMPs continue to grow (PLA Daily, May 2, 2024).

U.S. Allies Play Risky Game With Tilt to China

Matthew Tostevin

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s mission to China this week earned a five percent reduction in tariffs on scotch whisky exports and a stiff warning from U.S. President Donald Trump.

"Very dangerous," was the way Trump put it.

But Starmer was only the latest NATO ally leader to pay a visit to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Many pillars of the West are seeking to balance their global relationships because of the unpredictability of a U.S. president who has challenged longstanding norms, started tariff wars with both friends and adversaries, and threatened to take over Greenland and maybe Canada. Starmer’s pilgrimage to Beijing followed visits by France’s president and Canada’s prime minister. Germany’s chancellor is due there next month. Trump himself is also visiting in April.

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