Indian Strategic Studies

8 April 2015

China-India Strategic Partnership in 2015 neither Strategic nor a Partnership

By Dr Subhash Kapila

06-Apr-2015

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1750

On the eve of PM Modi’s visit to China it needs to be highlighted that the so-called China-India Strategic Partnership is neither ‘Strategic’ nor a ‘Partnership’.

“Strategic” implies existence of wide-ranging strategic convergences on overall security and stability and “Partnership” implies that both China and India by joint and shared endeavours would work effectively towards the foregoing objective. Sadly and regrettably that does not exist currently in China- India relations, leave aside what to say about the so-called China-India Strategic Partnership.

What hovers ominously as an overhang over China-India relations is whatever you want to call it: “Cold Peace” or “Cold War”

China's 'New' Carrier Killer Subs

By Franz-Stefan Gady

April 06, 2015

The Chinese Navy in in the process of commissioning three new nuclear-powered attack submarines, according to China Daily. The report, quoted on the website Defense Tech, furthermore notes that the new vessels will be equipped with a new vertical launching system capable of firing supersonic anti-ship missiles.

The “new” SSNs are in fact, upgraded versions of the Type-093 Shang-class second-generation nuclear-powered attack submarines, two of which are currently in service in the People’s Liberation Army Navy. The upgrades are designated Type-093G.

“The Type-093G is reported to be an upgraded version of Type-093… With a teardrop hull, the submarine is longer than its predecessor and has a vertical launching system,” China Daily said.

Why Kissinger’s South China Sea Approach Won’t Work

By Prashanth Parameswaran

April 07, 2015

Late last month, media outlets reported that Henry Kissinger, America’s prominent former secretary of state, had said that the U.S. and China should look to the example of Deng Xiaoping when it comes to defusing China’s disputes with other claimants in the South China Sea.

“Deng Xiaoping dealt with some of his problems by saying not every problem needs to be solved in the existing generation,” Kissinger said in Singapore, where he attended Lee Kuan Yew’s funeral. “Let’s perhaps wait for another generation but let’s not make it worse.”

Applied to the South China Sea, that might mean shelving knotty issues surrounding territorial and maritime claims for now and perhaps even focusing on joint development.

Tibetan Leader: Chinese Government Can’t Choose Next Dalai Lama

March 30, 2015

Since 1959, when the current Dalai Lama escaped from Tibet, his tireless efforts for freedom for Tibetans and peace in the world have irked and outraged the Chinese Communist Party. Its leaders have called the 14th Dalai Lama a “wolf in sheep’s clothing,” “a devil with a human face,” and a “devil with horns.” They ban the Dalai Lama’s portrait and severely punish anyone in Tibet found carrying or displaying his image.

How incredible, then, that China now claims the right to locate the next reincarnation of the spiritual leader whom they call “the devil.” How incredible, too, that the Communist leaders whose ideology regards religion as the opium of the people, and whose founding figure, Mao Zedong, famously told His Holiness the Dalai Lama in Beijing that “religion is poison,” now orders the Dalai Lama to reincarnate on the Chinese government’s terms.

The Revealing Naïveté of One ISIS Recruit in Libya

04.06.15

LONDON—Last week, a document entitled “Interview with a Prisoner From al Baghdadi’s Group: Part I” was circulated by a Twitter user who goes by the name al Mundhir al Ḥussaini and describes himself as a “Da’esh [ISIS] dissident” in Misrata, Libya.

As the title suggests, the document is an Arabic language report on what is alleged to be a conversation between a captive ISIS supporter in Sirte and those guarding him, who remain anonymous.

While it is impossible to verify the authenticity of the interrogation, it nevertheless makes an intriguing read, and if it is indeed a valid document it provides important insights into the way the so-called Islamic State and the organizations that have pledged fealty to it go about indoctrinating their recruits. Rarely do we hear the firsthand account of an ISIS supporter’s path to the caliphate, a process about which man assumptions are made but deeper understanding is severely lacking.

Why Arab Countries Fear the Iran Deal

April 7, 2015

As the White House claims a well-deserved victory over the nuclear deal with Iran, Washington must also realize that Arab states and societies view the agreement as a reflection of a fundamental shift in the power dynamics of the Middle East.

The reaction to the deal among Arab leaders has been relatively muted so far. Saudi Arabia, one of the most determined opponents of the nuclear negotiations, was tame in its response so as not to embarrass its American ally. But hardened opposition remains.

Iran and the Obama Doctrine

Thomas L. Friedman

APRIL 5, 2015

In September 1996, I visited Iran. One of my most enduring memories of that trip was that in my hotel lobby there was a sign above the doorproclaiming “Down With USA.” But it wasn’t a banner or graffiti. It was tiled and plastered into the wall. I thought to myself: “Wow — that’s tiled in there! That won’t come out easily.” Nearly 20 years later, in the wake of a draft deal between the Obama administration and Iran, we have what may be the best chance to begin to pry that sign loose, to ease the U.S.-Iran cold/hot war that has roiled the region for 36 years. But it is a chance fraught with real risks to America, Israel and our Sunni Arab allies: that Iran could eventually become a nuclear-armed state.

Make No Mistake — the United States Is at War in Yemen

BY MICAH ZENKO

MARCH 30, 2015

The Obama administration revealed that the United States was participating in yet another Middle East military intervention via a press release from the spokesperson of the National Security Council (NSC). This time, it’s Yemen. Late Wednesday evening, March 25, the White House posted a statement declaring: “President Obama has authorized the provision of logistical and intelligence support to GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council]-led military operations.”

There was no prime-time address by the president or secretary of defense — the only two people in the national command authority who can lawfully direct the U.S. military to engage in hostilities. There was no statement from the Department of Defense, the federal agency responsible for those armed forces providing the support to the GCC, or comment from U.S. Central Command, the combatant command whose geographic area of responsibility includes the GCC members and Yemen itself. Rather, the NSC spokesperson simply let us know.

US, Philippines set to hold expanded war games

By Staff Writers

April 6, 2015

The United States and the Philippines will double the size of their annual war games this month, with some exercises to be staged close to a South China Sea flashpoint, the Filipino military said Monday.

The 10-day exercises between the long-time allies will be held as fears grow in the Philippines that China is seeking to take control of the strategically vital and resource-rich sea.

Nearly 12,000 soldiers will be involved in this year's edition in several locations in the Philippines, including a naval station directly facing the disputed waters, military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Harold Cabunoc said.

Reality Check: America Needs Iran

Flynt Leverett Hillary Mann Leverett

April 7, 2015

Since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was announced last week, the Obama administration—echoing previous pledges that nuclear talks with Tehran do not presage a U.S.-Iranian “grand bargain”—has assiduously reaffirmed that progress on the nuclear issue does not signal a wider diplomatic opening.

Such a posture ignores an overwhelming strategic reality: America’s position in the Middle East is in free fall, and the only way out is to realign U.S. relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Washington must do this as purposefully as it realigned relations with the People’s Republic of China in the 1970s, when it struggled to extricate America from the self-inflicted debacle of the Vietnam War and to renew its diplomatic options, for the Cold War’s last phase and beyond. By not using nuclear diplomacy as a catalyst for broader, “Nixon to China” rapprochement with Iran, Obama and his team ensure further erosion of America’s standing as a great power, in the Middle East and globally.

The Fed's Big Role in the Oil-Price Game

April 7, 2015

Most analysts are on the supply side of the oil-price equation. But there is something else at work—demand. Demand growth has been taken for granted for the better part of the twenty-first century: China built infrastructure and its economy grew, which created more demand for crude oil, and the cycle repeated. Now, demand growth is more tenuous, and far more price sensitive than it was in previous cycles. The familiar refrain “oil cannot stay low forever” may be true. But it can stay low for a prolonged period of time.

Oil is a dollarized commodity. And this means the U.S. dollar has a direct effect on the price of oil—specifically in non-dollar terms. This implies that the dollar’s strength matters for oil’s price recovery, because it can dramatically affect the price that non-U.S. buyers must pay without the dollar price of oil moving.

Could This Be America's Best Kept Economic Secret?

Shannon K. O'Neil

April 6, 2015

The U.S. economic recovery and current strength reflect in large part advanced industries. As other sectors faltered, both employment and output in these businesses grew. In 2013, they employed 12.3 million workers (9 percent of the U.S. workforce), who made on average $90,000 (compared to the U.S. mean of $51,500). These industries generated $2.7 trillion in output (17 percent of U.S. GDP), and indirectly supported an additional 14.3 million jobs.

Central to this classification, as developed in a recent Brookings report, is innovation. Participants stand out on two criteria—over 20 percent of their workers are science, technology, engineering, or math (STEM) professionals and all spend $450 or more in R&D per worker. The authors classify some fifty different industries—from aerospace to semiconductors, satellite telecommunications to software publishers—across manufacturing, energy, and services as advanced sectors.

Enough Is Enough: Abolish the IRS

Robert W. Merry

April 7, 2015

Among the more enjoyable spectacles of Washington in recent years has been watching Grover Norquist eluding once again a contingent of media foxhounds in full bray, yelping and jumping at the bottom of a tree in which, they are convinced, they have finally trapped the prominent anti-tax guru. One such episode took place in November 2012, shortly after President Obama’s reelection—and at a time when official Washington faced a choice between a grand fiscal compromise and the austere budget cuts that would kick in automatically under what was known as “sequestration.”

Congress would never allow sequestration to take effect, according to the media wisdom of the day, and hence Republicans would have to accept tax increases as part of the alternative fiscal bargain. That would mean the GOP would have to repudiate the famous Tax Pledge devised by Norquist and signed by nearly every congressional Republican. That, in turn, would destroy the force and power of that nettlesome Tax Pledge—and dislodge Norquist from his prominent place as Horatio at the bridge of tax policy.

New Openings for India in the US-Iran Thaw

By Harsh V. Pant

April 07, 2015

As the United States and Iran head toward a broader rapprochement, what does India stand to gain?

Last week, P5+1 and Iranian diplomats in Lausanne, Switzerland, announced that they had reached a framework for a nuclear deal. The negotiations will now continue to work on technical issues as diplomats work toward a deadline for a comprehensive agreement at the end of June. The announced framework would permit Iran a limited nuclear enrichment capacity, but would subject its civil nuclear program to a strict and intrusive inspection regime. Iran, in exchange, would receive gradual relief from nuclear sanctions as it demonstrates compliance. Though the operationalization of the framework would not be easy, as a first cut the framework is fairly comprehensive with most important parameters duly accounted for.

Pro-Palestinian Hackers Hit Israeli Websites

April 7, 2015

JERUSALEM — Pro-Palestinian hackers disrupted Israeli websites on Tuesday, following threats from the Anonymous hacking collective that it would carry out an “electronic Holocaust,” though Israeli cyber experts said the coordinated attacks caused little damage.

The hacking campaign, which has taken place every April 7 since 2013, is meant to be in protest of Israeli policies toward the Palestinians. In 2013, the hackers first waged the coordinated campaign, dubbed OpIsrael, on the eve of Israel’s annual Holocaust remembrance day.

Israel’s Computer Emergency Response Team, a civilian cyber security group, said Anonymous attacked a few dozen websites belonging to Israeli musicians and non-profit organizations on Tuesday. Anonymous had vowed it would topple Israeli government websites, banks and public institutions, though no major disruptions were reported.

CONTEMPORARY CYBERCRIME: COUNTERING THROUGH CROSS-DISCIPLINE COOPERATION – ANALYSIS

By Caitrίona Helena Heinl and Stephen Honiss

Cyber is a game changer since it now affects most law enforcement operations including those that traditionally had no technological aspect. INTERPOL’s IGCI therefore held its first workshop in March involving law enforcement, industry, academia, and research bodies to more fully identify its research agenda for the near term.

In light of this workshop, there are at least three noteworthy challenges facing the international community. They are the need to proactively expect new trends and threats; the necessity for stronger international collaboration; and the requirement to more responsibly tackle privacy concerns over law enforcement’s access to data.

Is the U.S.-Iran Cyber War Over?

04.06.15

Washington and Tehran have come to an understanding on nuclear weapons. The cyber arsenals? Not so much.

The international agreement reached last week on Iran’s nuclear program may stall the country’s aspirations to build The Bomb. But U.S. officials and cyber security experts aren’t betting that Iran will give up its pursuit of another strategic arsenal: cyber weapons, which the country has been rapidly acquiring and using against U.S. targets.

And the American cyber espionage campaign against Iran? The experts and officials expect that to continue, as well.

Will This Plane Let China Control the South China Sea?

By Franz-Stefan Gady

April 07, 2015

A new aircraft would be capable of quickly shuttling Chinese cargo and personnel to the contested Spratly Islands.

China is building the world’s largest seaplane, theJiaolong (Water Dragon) AG600. Capable of landing and taking off on water (and land), the Chinese-built aircraft could make it easier for Beijing to press its claims in the South China Sea, according to experts quoted in a Defense News article.

“Amphibious planes like the AG600 would be perfect for resupplying the new artificial islands that the Chinese are building in the SCS [South China Sea]. At the same time, these islands would be excellent bases of operations for the AG600 to engage in maritime patrols of claimed territories,” notes Richard Bitzinger, coordinator of the Military Transformations Program at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

SIMI: Jolt to 'Revival'

Ajit Kumar Singh

Two cadres of the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) were killed in an encounter with the Police near Janakipuram in Nalgonda District of the newly constituted Telangana State, on April 4, 2015. One Police Constable was killed while another Policeman was injured during the encounter. Telangana Director General of Police (DGP) Anurag Sharma in an April 5 release, stated that the slain duo were identified as Mohammed Aijazuddeen, a native of Kareli in the Narsinghpur District of Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Mohammed Aslam alias Bilal, who hailed from Ganesh Talai in the Khandwa District of MP. Sharma added, "Aijajuddeen and Aslam have been the active members of Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) in Madhya Pradesh and were involved in acts of terror in India."

According to the release, the duo were on the run since they opened fire and killed a Police Constable and a Home Guard, who were part of a police team that was checking vehicles for suspicious passengers at the Suryapet Bus Stand in Nalgonda District, in the intervening night of April 1 and 2. A circle inspector and another Home Guard were injured in the firing. The duo had also tried to stop a car at gunpoint and injured one civilian when the driver of the car sped on.

Is America Trying to Contain China?

April 6, 2015

Conservative observers in China tend to overestimate the China factor in US foreign and security policies. In their view, every aspect of US foreign policy – the alliance system, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), the response to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) – aims to contain China’s rise.

The China-US relationship is a mix of good and bad news: if we ignore the positive part, we easily reach negative conclusions. There are many positive trends in the China-US relationship: increasing interdependence between the two economies, increasing interactions in the security sphere, more frequent contact and exchanges between the two militaries, including China’s participation in RIMPAC, the two memorandums of understanding reached during President Obama’s visit to China last November, and more. These would all be impossible if the United States was containing China.

The Long U.S.-Egypt Goodbye

April 6, 2015

Last Tuesday afternoon the National Security Council announced that the Obama administration was releasing the long-delayed shipments of M1A1 tank kits, Harpoon missiles, and F-16 fighter jets to the Egyptian armed forces. The decision proved to be immediately controversial and was swiftly denounced on social media as “back to business as usual” with the Egyptians. It certainly seems that way. Reportedly, the administration based its decision on Egypt’s own deteriorating security situation, which has coincided with wars raging in Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. The regional political environment may be novel, but the White House’s rationale—security—is reminiscent of a time in the not so distant past when Washington only raised Egypt’s dismal human rights record in a perfunctory way. The most important things then (and now) were keeping the Suez Canal open, the Islamists down, and the peace with Israel secure. Yet for all of the apparent continuities in Washington’s approach to Egypt’s president, from Hosni Mubarak to Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, it is not back to business as usual, and that’s not because the administration will be cutting off Cairo’s access to cash flow financing—a credit card for weapons—in fiscal year 2018. Rather, it is not business as usual because business as usual is not really an option.

In Defense of Sharia Law

Akhilesh Pillalamarri

April 6, 2015

Many American citizens and legislators today display a somewhat understandable sense of alarm whenever they hear the term sharia, or Islamic Law (the word literally means “pathway to be followed” in Arabic).

This is understandable not because of any inherent flaw with Sharia itself, as all systems have their pros and cons, but because different legal systems develop over time to align with various local cultural and historical circumstances, and what is intended for societies in the Middle East is clearly different from what would work in the United States.

Nuclear Submarines: America's New Aircraft Carriers?

April 7, 2015

"Nuclear-powered guided missile submarines could be the key to maintaining America’s future naval supremacy."

A new class of nuclear-powered guided missile submarines could be the key to maintaining America’s future naval supremacy as new weapons increasingly challenge the dominance of the U.S. Navy’s aircraft carriers.

In fact, some analysts have suggested that guided missiles submarines should one day replace the aircraft carrier as the centerpiece of the Navy’s warfighting capability.

With the proliferation of precision-guided weapons like anti-ship cruise missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles and advanced air defense systems—particularly by China—the U.S. Navy’s carriers and their embarked air wing are increasingly vulnerable to what the Pentagon calls the anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) challenge.

An Army Brigadier General Recommends 10 Military Books For Military Leaders

BY THOMAS E. RICKS

APRIL 2, 2015 - 11:04 AM
Source Link

By Brig. Gen. Anthony J. Tata, US Army (Ret.)

Best Defense guest reader

On to Berlin, James Gavin… combat leadership while transforming a force

Prisoner’s Dilemma, William Poundstone… understanding opponent behavior and asymmetrical attack through game theory

The Transformation of War, Martin Van Creveld… evolution of Clausewitizian warfare to the transnational actors of today

Leading with Honor, Lee Ellis… timeless leadership lessons from Vietnam prisoner of war

Patriots: The Men who Started the American Revolution, A.J. Langguth… to know where you’re going you must know where you started

Fiasco, Tom Ricks… replaces Richard Gabriel’sMilitary Incompetence as a must read for critical self analysis and improving U.S. military operations

The End of History and The Last Man, Francis Fukuyama… philosophical understanding of the underlying machinations of global geopolitics

Here Comes the “Force of the Future”

April 6, 2015

Last week, Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter gave a speech at his former high school that laid out his vision for reforming the military’s manpower policies. For those like myself who have argued that the current system is inflexible, antiquated, and poorly adapted for the needs of millennial service members, it was refreshing to see a sitting defense secretary stake out such a forward-thinking position on personnel issues. Carter laid out an array of different policy proposals, three of which I found particularly intriguing:

- Expand “sabbatical programs” that allow personnel to take time off from the active duty force without harming their careers.

Is "Regular Warfare" Dead?

April 6, 2015

Hugh White's considered response to the questions I posed in our recent exchange in the Lowy Interpreter on the fundamentals of Australian defense strategy prods me to elaborate on my previous arguments as well as to make some counterpoints.

On the question of irregular warfare, we seem to be in agreement that it is certainly the most common form of warfare today but we part company on whether it is more important to focus on regular warfare which, while rare, is in Hugh's judgement more serious for a country like Australia.

Without wishing to engage in a long and arcane definitional debate about regular and irregular warfare, let me make a couple of clarifying comments.

New personnel rules: Carter's plans to keep best troops

By Andrew Tilghman

April 6, 2015

He's worried about recruiting and retaining a high-skilled force when the economy is improving. He is worried the military will be unable to compete with corporate America for the best and brightest young people.

He's worried that military life will be unattractive to the young cohort known as millennials, including some who were in kindergarten on Sept. 11, 2001, and can't remember precisely where they were that morning.

"As the so-called 9/11 generation begins to leave our ranks, the Defense Department must continue to bring in talented Americans, from your generation and others," Carter told students on a recent trip to his alma mater, Abington Senior High School in suburban Philadelphia.

'The Art of War' in 8 charts

KATHY GILSINAN, THE ATLANTIC

MAR. 10, 2015, 10:55 AM

The Art of War may be one of the most adaptable books of the past two millennia. There's an Art of War for small businesses. There's an Art of War fordating. There's even an Art of War for librarians.

According to Jessica Hagy, author of the newest version, The Art of War Visualized, the book has spawned so many interpretations because it can be read as not really being about war at all. "It's about creative problem-solving," Hagy told me. Hagy, who doodles the quasi-mathematical logic of human foibles on the popular blog Indexed, found three copies of Sun Tzu's classic among college textbooks and Tom Clancy novels while cleaning out her basement last year, and she saw in its short verses the kind of logic she likes to draw, as in this recent example from Indexed:

From Sailors To Robots: A Revolution In Clearing Mines

By SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR

April 06, 2015

Clearing sea mines is so murderously hard that the best defense is to sink the ships or shoot down the planes carrying them before they can be put in the water. But politics, surprise, orfear of escalation might keep the US military from stopping the minelayers “left of splash.” That means somebody had better be ready to go after the deadly explosives in their natural habitat. The great leap forward today is that “somebody” is increasingly likely to be a robot.

For over a century, clearing mines was a brutal, crude and close-up business. Specialized ships, divers, and even trained dolphins had to go right into the minefield. The US Navy has led the world in counter-mine equipment that could be towed from helicopters, but that still means flying low, slow and in a predictable pattern in airspace where enemy aircraft or missile launchers might be watching. There are even reports that China has developed anti-helicopter mines designed to launch themselves out of the water. For more than a decade, the Navy has increasingly invested in technologies to “keep the sailor out of the minefield” by sending unmanned systems in, both under water and on the surface.

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