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| Violence marked the third anniversary of the Tahrir revolution, a symptom of the uncertainty in Egypt, writes Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty | ||
 Egypt reached a historical
milestone as the country marked the third anniversary of the Tahrir
revolution on January 25 that overthrew Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian
dictator who ruled Egypt for almost 30 years. The anniversary was marked
by bomb blasts, rallies and killings as Muslim Brotherhood supporters
clashed with security forces. Muslim Brotherhood supporters used the
anniversary to signal renewed defiance of the military and the political
transition, planned by the military-backed interim government. The
Muslim Brotherhood has been declared a terrorist organization by the
interim government that has also put the former president, Mohamed
Morsi, in the dock for criminal offences. The Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis, a
group affiliated to al Qaida, claimed responsibility for the bomb blasts
and warned that more would follow. This group has been responsible for
suicide bomb attacks and a savage campaign of violence against the
security forces in the Sinai Peninsula.
The last
three years have seen Egypt undergoing wrenching political upheavals
that have left the country deeply polarized. Egyptians opposed to the
Muslim Brotherhood are clamouring for the defence minister and army
chief, General Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, to run for president. He was the
Egyptian strongman behind the overthrow of the Morsi-led Islamist
government in June 2013. Crippled by months of continuous crackdowns
against its members, the Muslim Brotherhood supporters have been killed
in their hundreds. The crackdown has included arrests and the seizure of
assets of pro-Brotherhood businesspersons. A rising tide of anger
against the Brotherhood has aroused the Egyptian public and secular
Egyptians, the latter group being critical of both the military and the
Islamists. The secularists are currently caught between the resurgent
military and the Islamists in retreat mode. The referendum on the new
constitution held on January 14 and 15 had a low turnout of about 38 per
cent, marginally more than the turnout in the referendum on the first
constitution drafted under the Islamist government of Morsi. The
Islamists had called for a boycott of this referendum.
Egypt, the
most populous nation in West Asia, is caught in a hinge moment in its
long and remarkable history. Egypt has never been a democracy in all its
6000 years. The so-called Arab Spring that began in Tunisia, sweeping
away dictatorships in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, seems to be turning a
full circle, particularly in Egypt. The Egyptian military has been
emboldened by public support, whereas the Islamists are aggrieved
because their elected president has been overthrown and imprisoned. The
Islamist government led by Morsi made many mistakes. Governance was
marked by arrogance, incompetence, ignoring and ridiculing critics and
failing to deal with the basic needs of an aroused citizenry. The
propensity by both sides to resort to street action, strong-arm tactics
to reverse adverse electoral decisions and the deep state’s partisan
urge to intervene in politics, led to Morsi’s overthrow and a repeat of
what happened in the first uprising against Mubarak.
While Egypt
grapples with its internal contradictions and polarized politics,
important international and regional players have staked out positions
either for or against the interim government or the Islamists. The
United States of America had hedged its bets earlier by refusing to call
Morsi’s ouster a coup. Egypt is the second largest recipient of 1.5
billion dollars in annual US aid, ever since the Camp David Accords were
signed in 1979, ushering in peace between Egypt and Israel. If the US
called Morsi’s ouster a coup, then it would trigger a statutory cut-off
in US military and civilian aid. The recent moves by the Egyptian
military have led to President Barack Obama issuing a statement
condemning the interim government. But the US has hedged by slowing down
delivery of military aid and cancelling military exercises.
Humanitarian aid continues uninterrupted. The US position has angered
both the Egyptian military and the Islamists and the former has shown
signs of reaching out to Russia. Turkey and Qatar have strongly
supported the Morsi government but Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates have poured in billions in aid to the military-backed interim
government, signalling their distaste for the Islamists. Turkey has been
the most vocal in condemning the ouster of the Morsi government and has
even called for United Nations intervention. Ironically, all these
countries are on the same side, backing the rebels in the Syrian civil
war.
With the
interim government promoting General el-Sisi as Field Marshall and the
Supreme Military Council, clearing the General to stand for the
presidential election, Egypt may end up being ruled by another military
strongman. Egypt is heading for a quasi-democratic transition. What is
undeniable is that Egypt needs stability and without it the West Asian
region will remain in turmoil. In this complex interplay of internal
politics, international and regional interests, India has maintained a
position that essentially stems from the fact that India can do little
to influence events in Egypt. Leveraging its cordial relations with
Egypt, India had hosted President Morsi for a State visit and has
regarded subsequent developments as Egypt’s internal matter, signalling
thereby that it is willing to do business with the government of the
day.
The
author is former secretary, ministry of external affairs, and former
ambassador and high commissioner to Thailand and Bangladesh
respectively
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