14 October 2020

Turkey’s increasingly assertive foreign policy


President Erdogan has moved aggressively in recent years to demonstrate that Turkey sees itself as the pre-eminent political and military power in the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean. This policy shift reflects growing Turkish capabilities, but is also an attempt by Erdogan to preserve his domestic standing amid deteriorating economic conditions that have undermined the popularity of his political party, the AKP.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s increasingly assertive policies in the eastern Mediterranean region are due to the convergence of several factors. These include both long-cherished aspirations, such as reducing Turkey’s dependence on energy imports and establishing Ankara as the pre-eminent power in the Middle East, and more recent changes, such as the centralisation of political power in Erdogan’s own hands and the fast growth of the Turkish defence industry. But the main factor driving him to act assertively is a desire to preserve his domestic political standing.

Despite the control Erdogan exercises over the flow of information to the public, through the government’s domination of the Turkish media and its suppression of domestic dissent, opinion polls suggest that his popularity is declining, not least as a result of the slowing Turkish economy. With little prospect of a sustained economic upturn, and faced with both a revitalised opposition and growing unease within his own Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan is now trying to shift attention abroad and boost his support by appealing to Turkish nationalism. From this perspective, unless Erdogan can show that he is being actively courted by international actors, he may have more to gain from stoking confrontations than from seeking harmony. But there is a risk that he will overestimate Turkey’s capabilities, leaving it vulnerable to overstretch – particularly given its limited military resources in terms of special forces and manned aircraft – and to increased international isolation that could further weaken the economy.

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