Aishwarya Sanjukta Roy Proma
The recent Iranian drone and missile attack in Pakistani Baluchistan has reignited tensions that have further worsened the ties between the two governments. The reciprocal retaliation between a nuclear-armed nation and another engaged in the development of warheads is a very significant intensification of tensions between these two neighboring countries, who have historically had strained ties.
Iran conducted airstrikes on Pakistan’s Balochistan area on January 16, 2024, with the stated objective of targeting the strongholds of Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni separatist organization responsible for carrying out assaults inside Iran. The airstrikes resulted in the deaths of two children and caused injuries to several individuals in Pakistan. The Pakistani government denounced the attack as a breach of its sovereignty. Pakistan responded on Thursday, January 18, 2024, by conducting airstrikes on Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan regions. The stated objective was to bomb the training camps of Baluch terrorists, who had been responsible for attacking Pakistani security personnel and government officials. The airstrikes resulted in the deaths of nine individuals, including four children, three women, and two men, all of whom were non-Iranian nationals. Iran condemned the assault, labeling it an act of aggression.
The Baloch territory, located at the intersection of Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan, has been a persistent cause of instability and violence for many years. The Baloch people harbor strong resentment at being governed by both Islamabad and Tehran and want self-governance or independence. The area also has several terrorist factions, some of whom maintain affiliations with regional or global entities, such as the Taliban, al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, or Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, it is crucial to acknowledge that the conflict encompasses not just the Shia-Sunni schism but also geopolitical, economic, security, and identity factors. However, a more intricate storyline emerges among the noise of military exercises and diplomatic criticisms.
This conflict encompasses both internal strife and exterior pressures. Both Iran and Pakistan are now facing significant challenges. Iran is dealing with the impact of sanctions and internal conflicts while aiming to strengthen its authority and demonstrate its might. On the other hand, Pakistan is confronting internal insurgencies and economic difficulties while endeavoring to establish its strategic importance. The presence of intense competition among major powers adds more complexity to the situation.
The action followed Iranian airstrikes this week that targeted the suspected strongholds of a terrorist organization in the volatile Pakistani region of Balochistan. The Iranian assault caused significant disruption in the already volatile area, prompting further concern over stability in the period leading up to Pakistan’s pivotal national elections. The current intensification of conflict between Iran and Pakistan coincides with a period of heightened tensions across the Middle East and beyond. The ongoing conflict in Gaza, the talks between Iran and world powers over its nuclear program, and the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia have all contributed to these tensions.
The occurrences arise at a very delicate time for Pakistan, as the country is set to conduct postponed national elections shortly. Additionally, this phenomenon occurs when Iranian-supported surrogates participate in clashes between Israel and the Red Sea, causing widespread concern about the possibility of a more extensive regional war. In addition, Pakistan often accuses Iran of sheltering Pakistani separatist organizations, such as the Baloch Liberation Army and the Baloch Liberation Front. These groups specifically want to attack Pakistan’s military troops and China’s Belt and Road Initiative projects in Pakistan, further adding complexity to the situation.
The US State Department harshly criticized the Iranian bombing in Pakistan, as well as its earlier this week operations in Iraq and Syria. The department called for a peaceful settlement to the growing tensions in the area. Likewise, the foreign ministry of Russia urged Iran and Pakistan to exercise utmost self-control and resolve their disagreements via diplomatic means, cautioning that failure to do so might inadvertently serve their interests. China’s influence in the Middle East is expanding, which has bolstered its collaboration with Iran, particularly via the 25-year cooperation pact, which includes diverse domains such as energy, infrastructure, commerce, and security, to counterbalance US interests. China has successfully maintained a favorable equilibrium with Pakistan, which is crucial for the success of its Belt and Road Initiative. In response to the abrupt increase in tension, China used its influence and diplomatic skills to facilitate negotiations between the opposing sides, aiming to avert any further escalation and maintain calm in the area.
The alliance between Iran Russia and China serve as a counterweight to Pakistan’s strong partnership with the United States and Saudi Arabia, resulting in a complicated geopolitical landscape in the region. The abrupt intensification of this conflict between Iran and Pakistan has substantial regional implications, potentially impacting the equilibrium of power, the security landscape, and the chances for peace in the Middle East and beyond. Certain powers may see the dispute as a chance to enhance their influence and pursue their goals, while others may view it as a potential danger to their security and stability. Israel may attempt to use the situation to weaken Iran’s nuclear program and regional aspirations. Saudi Arabia and the UAE may want to limit Iran’s influence and provide assistance to Pakistan. The war may also have an impact on regional alliances and rivalries, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Arab League.
The triangle ties with Iran, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia further complicate the geopolitical situation. Iran is part of the Axis of Resistance, a coalition that includes Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. This coalition is in opposition to the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistan maintains alliances with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates while exercising caution towards India, Afghanistan, and the Taliban. Iran and Pakistan possess conflicting interests and exert influence in Afghanistan, where they have backed different factions and parties over the years.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have maintained strong bilateral ties, whereas Iran perceives Saudi Arabia as a regional adversary. Pakistan finds itself in a difficult position as it tries to retain strong relations with Saudi Arabia while avoiding any disruption to its relationship with Iran. Nevertheless, the Iranian ballistic missile attacks in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan underscore Iran’s capacity to extend its influence beyond its territory and may have substantial consequences for the security of the region. Domestic political dynamics, the characteristics of the strikes, and the conviction that its ability to deter have all influenced Pakistan’s response to the Iranian attacks. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s unwavering will to safeguard and uphold its national security from any dangers is evident in its reaction.
Its instability has a significant impact on relations between Pakistan and Iran because of the shared border security issues. Exercising skillful diplomacy and making informed choices are crucial for Iran and Pakistan to effectively manage this intricate relationship and avoid escalating tensions that might jeopardize regional security.
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