Israel’s relentless strikes have crushed a series of nuclear ambitions: Egypt’s missiles in the ‘60s, Iraq’s Osiraq nuclear reactor in ’81, Syria’s al-Kibar nuclear reactor in ’07, and now Iran in 2025. A provocative Modern Diplomacy piece, “Once Israel Defeats Iran, Pakistan is Next”, now eyes Islamabad’s 170 warheads as a looming menace.
Should a volatile, Islamist-leaning regime wield such apocalyptic power? Pakistan’s tangled web – its nukes, jihadist ties, and role as China’s strategic ally – begs exposure. Not a war drum for Israeli raids, but a stark alert to a geopolitical fuse armed and live.
Pakistan is no small fish. Its operational, scattered arsenal, backed by Saudi gold and Chinese steel, thrives amid chaos. Osama bin Laden’s cosy hideout and hardliner currents betray shaky ground. Can such a state be trusted with doomsday weapons?
Modern Diplomacy floats Israel and India hitting Pakistan’s less-fortified nuclear sites, then potentially carving it into Sindh and Punjab, snatching Kashmir, and severing China’s Indian Ocean dreams. This depicts Pakistan as a strategic zone.
China relies on Pakistan’s Himalayan buffer. A toothless Islamabad would disrupt Beijing’s plans, from Taiwan to beyond, forcing a critical repositioning of forces. Pakistan’s nukes fuel its bravado. And while its bunkers are less fortified than Iran’s, its arsenal is no less deadly. This brew of volatility and alliances makes a lethal puzzle.
Beside the latest Iran air campaign, Israel’s 1985 Tunis raid, a 2.400-km achievement, proves its long-range resolve and ability to hit targets with precision. With tankers over Jordan or Iraq, enabled by Syria’s collapse, Pakistan is a reachable objective. Yet, a jump from Iran to Pakistan may be too long a shot.
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