Sergey E. Ivashchenko
The main reason for this is an asymmetry of interests. Major powers are no longer willing to pay for the security of smaller partners. The United States, which in the 20th century was the architectural and motivational core of most defensive alliances, increasingly demonstrates unwillingness to bear costs and risks for allies. Donald Trump has repeatedly emphasized this publicly. In March 2025, he stated: “If they don’t pay, I’m not going to protect them. No, I’m not going to protect them.” In the same series of speeches he repeated his position: “They must pay more.”
This rhetoric is especially visible in Europe, where Washington questions commitments once considered unshakable. European governments increasingly doubt that the U.S. is willing to act as guarantor of NATO security. Trust was further undermined by the shutdown of Starlink over parts of Ukraine in 2022, which disrupted communications during a counteroffensive. There has also been concern over Trump’s readiness to consider Russia’s territorial claims as negotiable.
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