How the Iranian Regime Breaks Elite Fracture Will Come Gradually and Then Suddenly

Afshon Ostovar

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Over the last few weeks, the Iranian regime has faced remarkable challenges—and displayed remarkable unity. Hundreds of thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets to protest the Islamic Republic in what has become the most significant internal challenge the state has faced in its 47-year history. But the elite has not yet fractured. Instead of squabbling over how to handle the demonstrations, Iran’s reformist and hardline leaders have worked together to suppress them. To date, none of the regime’s elites objected to the killings of thousands of innocent civilians by security forces. 

Why Greenland Suddenly Matters to the Rest of the World

Javier Villamor

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For most of modern history, Greenland barely registered in global politics. It was widely seen as a distant, ice-covered territory with little influence beyond its immediate region. That has changed quickly. Today, the world’s largest island has become a focal point for questions about security, trade routes, and access to the Arctic.

For the United States, Washington treats Greenland as a strategic necessity rather than a diplomatic provocation. For the European Union, it has become a case study in missed opportunities and slow decision-making.

From a military standpoint, Greenland plays a key role in the defense of North America. The island lies along the shortest route between Russia and the United States. Any long-range missile or bomber launched from Eurasia toward U.S. territory would cross the Arctic and pass over Greenland.

The new Trump Doctrine: Strategic domination and denial

Joanna Rozpedowski

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The new year started with a flurry of strategic signals, as on January 3 the Trump administration launched the opening salvos of what appears to be a decisive new campaign to reclaim its influence in Latin America, demarcate its areas of political interests, and create new spheres of military and economic denial vis-à-vis China and Russia.

In its relatively more assertive approach to global competition, the United States has thus far put less premium on demarcating elements of ideological influence and more on what might be perceived as calculated spheres of strategic disruption and denial.

Europe Is Prepared to Create Its Own Army

Luke McGee

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Donald Trump’s first full year back in the White House has brought with it more existential questions for America’s European allies than his entire first term. Trump has made repeated claims that the real threat to European security is not Russia’s Vladimir Putin but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Trump’s latest fixation is seizing Greenland from Denmark, a NATO ally.

Europeans have bent over backward to accommodate an unpredictable White House and keep Trump on side by agreeing to dramatic increases in their national defense budgets while carefully courting of the U.S. president. In the past year, they have reached deals where European governments would effectively pay the United States to keep weapons flowing to Ukraine and commit their own troops to secure Kyiv’s sovereignty in place of any U.S. guarantees.

Putin’s Irrelevance at Davos Forum is Irreversible

Pavel K. Baev

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The agenda of the World Economic Forum (WEF), in Davos, Switzerland on January 19–23, is extensive. The absence of official Russian participants appears politically motivated. Russia has little to contribute to discussions, even on matters where it used to be among the world leaders, such as space exploration. 

Russia only launched 17 space rockets in 2025 (the plan was 20), while the People’s Republic of China (PRC) increased its space program to 91 launches, and the United States had 181 (RIA Novosti, January 12; Holod Media, January 13). Russia seems unlikely to regain prominence in Davos going forward. Even if Russian President Vladimir Putin’s successor eventually represents the Kremlin at the WEF, it is improbable that they would attract as much interest as Putin did in 2000.

onflicts to Watch in 2026

Paul B. Stares

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For the past eighteen years, the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) has surveyed American foreign policy experts to assess the risk posed to U.S. national interests by ongoing and emerging sources of armed conflict around the world.

The logic of this exercise is straightforward: U.S. policymakers often find themselves blindsided by conflict-related crises that divert attention and resources away from other priorities and even lead to major military interventions that cost American lives. Those involved frequently lament afterward that officials should have done more to avert or prepare for these crises. Thus, the purpose of the Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) is not just to alert busy U.S. policymakers to incipient sources of instability over the next twelve months but also to help them decide which are most pressing.

Europe Faces the Gone-Rogue Doctrine

Thomas de Waal

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The leader of the global superpower, nominally Europe’s largest ally, is directly threatening Europeans in Greenland. That much is obvious and dangerous—but what is much less clear is whether U.S. President Donald Trump actually has a plan.

One version has it that Trump harks back to an age of imperialism and sphere-of-influence politics where America is unconstrained: His intervention in Venezuela and threat to Greenland are his bid to relaunch the Monroe Doctrine and make himself emperor of the Western hemisphere.

Is Israel Annexing More Than Half of Gaza?

Giovanni Legorano

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Early in December, Israel’s military chief raised the alarm of the international community, saying the so-called yellow line in Gaza is the country’s new boundary with the enclave. “We will not allow Hamas to reestablish itself. We have operational control over extensive parts of the Gaza Strip, and we will remain on those defense lines,” the chief of the general staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Eyal Zamir, told troops in Gaza. “The yellow line is a new border line, serving as a forward defensive line for our communities and a line of operational activity.”

Israeli troops have withdrawn east of this line, which was drawn as part of the U.S.-brokered cease-fire plan last October, but not any further. The result is a Gaza split in two, with a buffer controlled by the IDF, surrounding and sealing the inner section. The Israeli military has already laid out concrete bollards to mark some stretches of the line, according to a report by the Guardian. The area under Israeli military control amounts to more than half of the original territory of the strip, with estimates varying from 53 percent to 58 percent.

What Spheres of Influence Are—and Aren’t

Stephen M. Walt

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There’s lots of talk about “spheres of influence” these days, largely in response to the latest U.S. National Security Strategy, the Trump regime’s recent actions in Venezuela, and its renewed efforts to take over Greenland. The idea that great powers should exercise unchallenged sway in their own “neighborhoods” is also consistent with U.S. President Donald Trump’s belief that strong leaders of strong countries should run the world and cut deals with each other, without worrying about international law, universal moral principles, or other idealistic notions.

Unfortunately, both those who embrace spheres of influence and those who oppose them may not fully grasp their place in world politics. In the real world, they are neither an outmoded practice that can be eliminated nor an effective way to minimize great-power competition. On the contrary, spheres of influence are both an inevitable result of international anarchy and an imperfect solution to the competitive incentives that

Lyse Doucet: Trump is shaking the world order more than any president since WW2

Lyse Doucet

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On day one, he put the world on notice. "Nothing will stand in our way," President Donald Trump declared, to thunderous applause, as he ended his inauguration speech in a cold Washington winter on this day last year, at the start of his second term.

Did the world fail to take enough notice? Tucked into his speech was a mention of the 19th Century doctrine of "manifest destiny" – the idea that the US was divinely ordained to expand its territory across the continent, spreading American ideals. At that moment, the Panama Canal was in his sights. "We're taking it back," Trump announced.

C.I.A.’s New Focus on Latin America Reflected in Raid to Seize Maduro

Julian E. Barnes and Tyler Pager

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A covert C.I.A. team conducted sabotage operations in Venezuela to help ensure that a U.S. military strike force could enter the country safely to seize President Nicolás Maduro early this month, according to people briefed on the operation. The work of the secretive operatives was a sign of close cooperation between the spy agency and the U.S. military, officials said. But it also reflected the spy agency’s new focus on Latin America, as well as a renewed emphasis on intelligence collection overseas and on covert operations.

U.S. officials insist a more aggressive stance by the agency — and focus on Latin America — is bearing results. In a closed-door briefing to Congress earlier this month, John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, said that foreign intelligence collection on Latin America had increased roughly 51 percent during his time in office, according to people familiar with the meeting. He also said the number of human sources had increased substantially, rising by 61 percent.

The future of dollar dominance

Sophie Stuart-Menteth

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United States President Donald Trump’s latest challenge to the Federal Reserve (Fed, America’s central bank) by launching a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell over a US$2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters has brought the question of the US dollar’s trajectory into sharp focus.

Trump’s second term has seen the renewed politicisation of America’s ‘exorbitant privilege’ – as the issuer of the leading reserve currency that also accounts for around half of global trade invoices – through policies that include the widespread use of tariffs and sanctions, as well as threats to the Fed’s independence. These policy shifts, together with high US public debt and a deteriorating US fiscal outlook, have heightened uncertainty about the US currency’s long-term stability. As 2026 brings US midterm elections in November and the nomination of a new Fed chairman (expected in January), concerns about the US dollar are set to grow.

How crypto criminals stole $700 million from people - often using age-old tricks

Joe Tidy

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There's something uniquely agonising about having your cryptocurrency stolen. All transactions are recorded on a digital ledger, known as a blockchain, so even if someone takes your money and puts it in their own crypto wallet, it is still visible online. "You can see your money there on the public blockchain, but there's nothing you can do to get it back," says Helen, who lost around $315,000 (£250,000) to thieves.

She likens it to watching a burglar pile up your prized possessions on the other side of an impassable chasm. For seven years Helen and her husband Richard (not his real name), both UK residents, had been buying and stacking up crypto coins called Cardano. They liked the idea of investing in a digital asset that had the potential to rise dramatically in value, unlike funds saved in more conventional ways. They knew it was riskier, but they were careful to keep their digital keys safe.

The U.S. Is the Sole Superpower

Meaghan Mobbs

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The stunning U.S. military operation on January 3, 2026, that captured Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, was not merely a counternarcotics raid or an act to remove a dictator who had illegally assumed power after losing an election. It was a deliberate strike against the emerging multipolar world order. By removing Maduro from power, bringing him to face justice in New York on narco-terrorism charges, and signaling direct U.S. influence over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, President Trump has sent an unmistakable message: The United States will not tolerate a global landscape where adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran carve out spheres of influence at America’s expense.

For years, champions of multipolarity have celebrated a world where power was held not just in Washington, but Beijing, Moscow, and other capitals across the globe, thereby fostering “balance” and reducing U.S. dominance and dependence. Venezuela, the holder of the world’s largest proven oil reserves at over 300 billion barrels, became a key battleground in this vision.

The World-Minus-One Moment Managing the global order with an antagonistic Washington.

Amitav Acharya

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In his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump has led a sustained assault on the foundations of the global order. He has nakedly flouted international law, wrecked the system of global trade with unilateral tariffs on scores of countries, and withdrawn the United States from important multilateral bodies.

The United States hasn’t always been an ideal champion of international cooperation. It tended toward isolationism when it was a rising power and unilateralism when it became a superpower. But Trump’s approach to reshaping the world order offers a new and dangerous mix of isolationism and aggrandizement. He is contemptuous of multilateralism and fixated by the raw exercise of power. So are his supporters. This likely means that whatever happens in Washington, Trumpism will outlive a president who turns 80 this year.

America Can’t Win the AI Race by Retreating

Bob Dees

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The U.S.–China AI race in 2026 is clearly a contest over whose technology will underpin the global economy and set the digital standards other nations will follow for years to come. In that contest, leadership will not be secured by trying to wall the rest of the world from American technology but by ensuring that the world’s AI ecosystem continues to run on it.

Yet while Washington has too often treated technological dominance as something that can be maintained simply by restricting exports, history suggests otherwise. When competitors are cut off from U.S. platforms, they do not stop innovating; they redirect investment, accelerate domestic alternatives, and erode the very supply-chain leverage that once gave the United States a strategic edge.

Closing the Arctic Gaps: NATO Allies and Partners Can Protect Their Homelands by Updating Their Defense Force Postures

Liselotte Odgaard

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Despite the war in Ukraine, Russia has not scaled down its commitment to develop its Arctic region from the Barents Sea to the Bering Strait. As analyzed in earlier publications, the Northern Sea Route connects Russia to China, encouraging the two countries to cooperate on developing the energy and shipping potential of Russia’s Arctic coastline. The route also allows them to expand military-strategic collaboration to benefit their economies while posing a hard power threat to the United States and its allies.1

In the Barents Sea near the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) area of operation, China plays a dual-use role in facilitating Russia’s ability to pose a hard-power threat to the US and its allies in northern Europe. Beijing has avoided opening another flank toward the US alliance system in a region China does not prioritize, but Moscow has designed its force posture to protect its nuclear threat against the US and its regional allies.

One operator, 200 drones: China showcases AI war tech

Senjo M R

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The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has released fresh details of its tests of AI-enabled drone swarm warfare, saying a single soldier can control a swarm of more than 200 drones. In a defence news programme aired on Tuesday, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV released details of a drone swarm test conducted by the PLA-affiliated National University of Defence Technology.

Drone swarm warfare relies on artificial intelligence and data links to launch hundreds of drones in a short time. These drones could fly in precise formations and divide tasks via autonomous algorithms, allowing them to simultaneously conduct multi-target reconnaissance and strike operations, the report said. The CCTV reported that through extensive offline training using both simulators and actual flights, the drone swarm developed strong autonomous intelligence, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported on Friday.

Singapore’s smart leap: Digital Minister Teo on AI transformation

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In a rapidly evolving digital landscape, few topics spark as much curiosity, debate, and ambition as AI. At the heart of Singapore’s transformation into a Smart Nation1 is Minister Josephine Teo, who leads the Ministry for Digital Development and Information. In this insightful conversation, McKinsey partner Vivek Lath sits down with Minister Teo to explore Singapore’s vision for AI, the challenges of adoption, and the opportunities for both government and industry.

Their dialogue goes beyond policy and strategy—it delves into the human side of technological change, addressing workforce transformation, trust, and the global aspiration for digital leadership. Minister Teo shares candid reflections on what it takes to build an AI-ready society, the importance of collaboration between domain experts and technologists, and how Singapore is setting standards for responsible innovation.

Cyberdefense Enters a Dangerous New Phase Allies fear that Washington is retreating from leadership at the worst possible time.

Rishi Iyengar

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In October 2025, representatives from dozens of countries gathered in Singapore for the annual meeting of the International Counter Ransomware Initiative (CRI). Founded by the United States in 2021, the global collective is aimed at combating ransomware, an increasingly prevalent type of cyberattack in which hackers lock victims out of their computer systems unless they agree to pay a hefty sum. It has since grown to include 74 member states and organizations.

For the first time in five years, the initiative’s annual gathering was not held in Washington, and U.S. representation was noticeably lacking.

The future of affordable EVs: Breakthroughs in battery pack costs

Clemens Cepnik and Martin Linder

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Until recently, the shift from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) was steadily gaining momentum, driven primarily by international targets for reducing CO2 emissions. New vehicles sold have bold targets—49.5 grams of CO₂ per kilometer (km) by 2030 in the European Union,1 for example—with related penalties for exceeding fleet targets playing a major role in increased electrification.

Despite some slowdown caused by geopolitical trends and constantly changing climate targets, our forecasts show global BEV sales to increase by 18 percent per year by 2030 to meet current regulatory targets. To achieve the projected global ramp-up of zero-emission vehicles, EVs will need to penetrate mass markets before 2030. Although the total cost of ownership (TCO) for many EVs (including purchase price, maintenance, electricity, taxes, and insurance) is better when compared with ICE vehicles in important markets, higher costs and customer prices for BEVs remain significant barriers to faster adoption.

India’s 2026 BRICS Presidency: Multilateralism, Multipolarity, and the Venezuelan Test

Lucas Carlos Lima

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As the presidency passes from Brazil to India, the central challenge facing BRICS in 2026 will not be the continuation of an already well-established common agenda, but rather the task of striking a workable balance among national positions on more divisive issues – areas in which the group is increasingly expected to articulate a collective stance.

The role of the BRICS’ rotating presidency is more consequential than it might initially appear. The presiding state is not merely responsible for convening and managing discussions across the bloc’s various tracks of cooperation; it also sets priorities and frames the political tone for the year. In this respect, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already outlined, in broad terms, the guiding principles of India’s presidency: resilience, innovation, cooperation, and sustainability.

DRDO eyes next-gen electronic warfare to propel India as global defence leader: Top official

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Bengaluru: The DRDO is focusing on next-generation electronic warfare technologies, spectrum dominance, and indigenous fighter aircraft programmes, with a strong emphasis on self-reliance and future warfare domains, its Director General (Electronics and Communication Systems), B K Das, said on Tuesday.

Speaking to PTI on the sidelines of the Electronic Warfare Conference-India (EWCI), Das said the event aimed to bring together all stakeholders in electronic warfare-including industry, academia and research institutions-to work towards a common objective in a rapidly evolving conflict domain. "The main focus is to bring together the entire electronic warfare ecosystem of the country-industry, academia and research institutions-to work towards a common cause in this emerging domain of warfare," he said.

Shooting For The Stars With A Paper Airplane: The US-Pakistan Rare Earths Deal

Eve Register

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In October 2025, Pakistan shipped its first load of rare earth minerals to the United States as part of a new $500 million agreement between the two nations. After months of trade negotiations, this shipment was of great symbolic significance, intended to show that Pakistan can deliver on its promise to provide the U.S. with the minerals needed to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable supply chains. The two countries have revealed a three-step plan to develop this relationship, calling for mining projects to scale up extensively by 2028. It is crucial, however, to understand the range of obstacles Pakistan faces when it comes to accessing the potential wealth of its mineral reserves.

Pakistan’s Critical Mineral Reserves: Hype and Reality

Although Pakistan does own extensive reserves, which its government states have an estimated value of $6 trillion and stretch across 230,000 square miles, the possession of these reserves is only one component of an extensive framework which is required to actually use and profit from these reserves. Ultimately, there is a stark disconnect between the promises being made to secure investment and the realities of what can actually be delivered.

How Will China’s DF-27 Long-Range Missile Reshape the Pacific?

James Holmes

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There is much we still do not know about the DF-27 missile—but it is worth examining the consequences for the US Navy if the Pentagon’s claims are taken at face value.

All respect to my colleague and friend Professor Andrew Erickson, but China’s DF-27 antiship ballistic missile does not represent “a new form of naval force,” as he wrote in USNI News last month. It is intimately familiar, and more ominous for all that. It represents the latest in a centuries-old form of naval force approaching its apex potential thanks to advances in sensor, computer, and weapons technology backed by the willpower and resources of a prosperous, ambitious, and increasingly domineering maritime power. Everything old is new again.

China’s Debt Problem—And Our Own

Corbin K. Barthold

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The United States and China are the world’s two great powers. The US boasts the largest economy, the global reserve currency, the leading AI firms, and a military with unmatched worldwide reach. China has the globe’s second-largest economy (far ahead of third-place Germany); commanding positions in key fields such as drones, batteries, and rare earths; an increasingly formidable navy; and, by virtue of its export dominance, substantial leverage over global trade. Cold War II is taking shape.

Or is it?

Dig deeper, and both nations start to look like surprisingly fragile societies drifting slowly but steadily toward disaster. Speaking on a podcast last month, China analyst Dan Wang offered a striking observation: “These two countries,” he said, need “to stop delivering” themselves “humiliating self-beatings.” In the United States, political divisions are entrenched, the distractions of the culture war persist, and respect for the rule of law is eroding. In China, meanwhile, disillusionment with the Chinese Communist Party—though largely hidden from Western eyes—runs deep, while the Chinese military reportedly wastes nearly half its time imbibing political propaganda rather than training for combat.

Chinese EV Batteries Are Eating the World

Zeyi Yang

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THE symbolism was clear last June when Emmanuel Macron, surrounded by factory workers, held up a sleek lithium battery in his right hand and a mining lamp in his left. He was in Douai, a northern French city with a coal mining history dating back to the 1700s. The city is now also the site of a battery factory, which would allow France to produce all parts of electric vehicles domestically. This factory, Macron declared, represented an “economic and ecological revolution.”

Macron immediately acknowledged that France didn’t pull this off alone: “We brought in investors from the other side of the world. They transferred their technologies. They helped train people,” Macron said, gesturing at a man beside him.

‘De-Islamization’ Is Rapidly Gaining Momentum In Iran

Chen Li

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Despite harsh crackdowns, large-scale protests still erupt across multiple regions of Iran. Available information indicates that recent demonstrations have spread to all 31 provinces and more than 180 cities nationwide. Beyond major metropolitan centers such as Tehran, large gatherings have also appeared in Kurdish areas and in provinces traditionally regarded as politically conservative.

From the available information, this wave of protests was initially triggered by Iran’s livelihood crisis, where high inflation has caused a sharp depreciation of the Iranian rial, while the costs of basic necessities like water, electricity, and food have risen rapidly. Within a very short period, the demonstrations quickly evolved into open resistance against Iran’s theocratic government and Islamic rule itself, extending further to challenge the very essence of Islamic authority.

Iran and the New Middle East

Robert D. Kaplan

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The Middle East is on the brink of a geopolitical earthquake. For close to half a century, since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, clerical Iran has been the organizing principle of the Middle East. Iranian revolutionaries created Hezbollah in Lebanon, supported and armed Hamas in Gaza, supported and armed the Houthis in Lebanon, and propped up the Assad family regime in Syria. They were an implacable enemy of both Israel and Saudi Arabia, and stoked terrorism and anti-Semitism in the West through social media and other means. And let’s not forget, Iran has been the principal force, through its militias, keeping the post-Saddam Hussein Iraq violent and anarchic.

Iran was an accessory to the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, and that has proved to be the Islamic regime’s ultimate undoing. Israel’s military response in a two-year war shattered Hamas, devastated Hezbollah, and, as a consequence, led to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran’s missile and nuclear threat against Israel led to the war last June, in which Israel and the United States did untold damage to Iran’s senior military and intelligence leadership and to its air defense system.

“Principled and pragmatic: Canada’s path” Prime Minister Carney addresses the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

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Thank you, Larry.

It’s a pleasure – and a duty – to be with you at this turning point for Canada and for the world.

Today, I’ll talk about the rupture in the world order, the end of a nice story, and the beginning of a brutal reality where geopolitics among the great powers is not subject to any constraints.

But I also submit to you that other countries, particularly middle powers like Canada, are not powerless. They have the capacity to build a new order that embodies our values, like respect for human rights, sustainable development, solidarity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of states.

The power of the less powerful begins with honesty.

Every day we are reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry. That the rules-based order is fading. That the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.

World leaders in Davos must stand up to Trump. This is their chance

Robert Reich

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Hundreds of global CEOs, finance titans, and more than 60 prime ministers and presidents are in Davos, Switzerland, for the annual confab of the world’s powerful and wealthy: the World Economic Forum.

This year’s Davos meeting occurs at a time when Donald Trump is not just unleashing his brownshirts on Minneapolis and other American cities, but also dismantling the international order that’s largely been in place since the end of the second world war – threatening Nato, withdrawing from international organizations including the UN climate treaty, violating the UN charter by invading Venezuela and abducting Nicolás Maduro, upending established trade rules, and demanding that the US annex Greenland.

Trump’s Iran Tariff Puts Friends And Foes On The Same Hook

James Durso

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On 12 January 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced, “Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America.”

Trump’s announcement aims to weaken the government of the Islamic Republic in the wake of weeks of protests against the government, sparked by a weak economy. Trump told the protesters to keep fighting their government and that “help is on the way.”

The Geopolitics of Maduro’s Capture: What Does Operation Absolute Resolve Mean for Russia?

Henry Ziemer

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The capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, has sent shockwaves around the world. U.S. adversaries in Beijing, Moscow, and Havana are closely watching what the future may hold for their own aspirations in the Western Hemisphere. In the case of Russia, the immediate prognosis is negative. The Kremlin has lost a key outpost in the Americas, the reputation of Russian military equipment has been further tarnished, and robust U.S. sanctions enforcement against shadow tankers portends poorly for the Russian war economy. In many ways, Maduro’s capture underscores that Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine has been a tremendous folly. That conflict’s immense human and fiscal cost has hamstrung Moscow’s ability to project power further afield.

Nevertheless, Russia continues to seek an advantage despite its defeat. Most notably, Russian media outlets have seized on narratives about the erosion of international law and the resurgence of spheres of influence to legitimize the Kremlin’s own revisionist ambitions and highlight U.S. disputes over Cuba, Greenland, and Mexico. Such narratives are likely to be leveraged in Russia’s ongoing influence campaigns in the Global South.

What a post-US world order might look like

Zohaib Tariq

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Ibn Khaldun, the 14th-century giant of political philosophy, argued that every great power passes through a natural civilizational cycle lasting five generations—roughly 125 years—before decline becomes unmistakable.

If we place the United States within this framework, its global arc began with the Monroe Doctrine in 1823 and reached full dominance after World War I. By that measure, the US-led rules-based international order has already outlived the historical life expectancy Ibn Khaldun envisioned for empires.

Had he been alive today, Ibn Khaldun might have credited America’s longevity to one factor he considered essential for state survival: the endurance of a functioning and credible justice system. As long as justice prevails, he wrote, a state can endure.

A Dutch Warship Just Shot Down a Swarm of Attack Drones off UK Coast

Evelyn Hart

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Tensions across contested maritime zones are reshaping how allied navies prepare for conflict. From the Baltic to the Red Sea, the proliferation of uncrewed systems has added complexity to both surveillance and engagement strategies. Traditional naval assets, designed for symmetrical warfare, are being pushed to adapt under operational and technological pressure.

In this evolving environment, NATO members are testing how synthetic and live combat scenarios can be combined to simulate attacks no longer theoretical. Small, networked drone swarms. Semi-autonomous surface vessels. Saturation strikes designed to overwhelm defense layers in seconds. Exercises are no longer abstract; they are practical rehearsals for incidents that could unfold with little warning.