19 February 2026

China remains undeterred in the grey zone

Sam Mullins

The final days of 2025 saw Taiwan surrounded by Chinese warships, aircraft and coast guard vessels in what the Chinese Ministry of Defence described as a serious warning to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and foreign interference. ‘Justice Mission 2025’, the sixth major military exercise to simulate a blockade of Taiwan since 2022, came closer to the island’s shores than previous drills, reflecting China’s strategy of creeping escalation.

In 2025, Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone reached their largest number yet — more than 3700 — coupled with record-high cyberattacks. The year was further marked by continued allegations of espionage and cutting of undersea cables, reports of rising disinformation and the first instance of Chinese law enforcement opening an investigation into a sitting Taiwanese lawmaker for ‘criminal activities aimed at splitting the nation’.

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