Jennifer Welch and Maeva Cousin
The island at the center of the artificial intelligence boom—and increasingly the global economy—lies on geological and geopolitical fault lines. Taiwan, the producer of most of the world’s advanced semiconductors, faces intensifying pressure from mainland China and growing uncertainty about US support. War doesn’t appear imminent. If it were to erupt, though, the shock to the global economy would be seismic.
In this report, Bloomberg Economics sets out five possible paths for how tensions in the Taiwan Strait could unfold—from war to rapprochement—and models their economic impact. In the most extreme case, a US-China conflict over Taiwan would cost the global economy about $10.6 trillion, roughly 9.6% of global gross domestic product, in the first year alone, eclipsing the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2007-09 global financial crisis.
No comments:
Post a Comment