5 December 2025

From Oil War to ‘Major Non-NATO Ally’: Trump’s Extraordinary Saudi Pivot

Simon Watkins

From the beginning of Donald Trump’s first term in office in 2017 to the start of his second term earlier this year, the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia shifted between tense and downright hostile. Those years included an Oil Price War, the de facto Saudi leader labelled a murderer, and all lines of communication between the two sides grinding to a complete halt. However, as Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) sat next to each other at a black?tie dinner at the White House last week – with the former designating the latter’s country as “a major non-NATO ally” -- all this must have seemed a distant past, and as L.P. Hartley put it: “They do things differently there”. So, how does the future for the world’s top superpower and one of its top hydrocarbons powers look from here?

It is apposite to note here that this is not a meaningless designation from the U.S. for Saudi Arabia. Only 19 other countries -- Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Morocco, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Qatar, South Korea, Thailand, and Tunisia – have such a standing in Washington’s eyes. Taiwan also has the same de facto designation, but does not officially enjoy the label, given the U.S.’s complicated ‘One China’ policy. Saudi Arabia’s new-found status also brings with it a host of economic and military advantages in its dealings with the U.S. and its allies, according to the State Department. These include eligibility for ‘loans of material, supplies, or equipment for cooperative research, development, testing, or evaluation purposes’, as well as for being a location for the placing of U.S.-owned War Reserve Stockpiles. Saudi Arabia will also now be able to enter into agreements with the U.S. for its security forces’ training on a bilateral or multilateral basis, will be eligible for the priority delivery of ‘excess defence articles’ (including C-130 Hercules aircraft or frigates, at low or zero cost), and for the purchase of depleted uranium ammunition. It will also be entitled to enter into agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense for research and development projects on defence equipment and munitions, and to procure explosives detection devices and other counter-terrorism research and development projects, among many other advantages. In short, Saudi Arabia is officially now regarded by the U.S. and its allies – including NATO members – as ‘one of ours’.

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