Amara Thiha
Nearly five years after a military coup in 2021 unseated its civilian government, Myanmar has become extremely fragmented. A civil war flared after the coup, killing thousands and leaving upward of 18 million people in need of humanitarian aid. Today, the central government under the military junta effectively controls less than half of the country’s territory. A variety of ethnic armed organizations and other rebel groups jostle for land, resources, and sway, running large regions of the country on their own terms.
Such a fractured political landscape could produce endless instability that might threaten investments in Myanmar or even spill beyond the country’s borders. But China, Myanmar’s most powerful and influential neighbor, no longer fears this fragmentation. Instead, Beijing believes this turmoil is here to stay—and that it can manage the chaos. For much of the civil war, Beijing reluctantly worked with both the military junta and local armed groups near its border while holding out hope for the junta to emerge dominant and unify the country, which would stabilize Myanmar and make it easier for China to operate there. Now, Beijing seeks to actively maintain its influence by simultaneously providing the junta with conditional economic and humanitarian aid and pressuring ethnic armed organizations on its border into compliance. China is using its massive economic leverage to force rival groups to the negotiating table on its terms.
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