A December 2025 U.S. Department of War assessment concludes that China’s military now expects a prolonged, high-intensity conflict over Taiwan rather than a rapid invasion. The shift reflects lessons drawn from Russia’s struggles in Ukraine, reshaping PLA planning around joint operations, logistics, and urban warfare while seeking to delay U.S. intervention.
China has drawn key lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war that it now applies to a potential Taiwan conflict, according to a December 2025 report by the U.S. Department of War. After analyzing Russia’s failures in logistics, joint operations, and urban combat, the PLA has shifted from expecting a quick invasion to preparing for a prolonged, high-intensity campaign focused on sustained logistics, joint force integration, and information warfare. Based on this, Army Recognition assesses that a likely Chinese invasion would begin with cyber and missile strikes to paralyze Taiwan’s defenses, followed by amphibious and airborne assaults, and end with intense urban combat to seize key population centers.
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