Joe Funderburke
The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) signals a deliberate shift toward restraint, hemispheric prioritization, and selective engagement. Yet history shows that when major powers seek to avoid large wars, competitors often exploit gray-zone tactics, proxy campaigns, and limited conflicts to test boundaries. The United States must therefore prepare for an era in which small wars become more frequent, more ambiguous, and more strategically consequential for the balance of power and the credibility of American leadership.
The United States is entering a strategic realignment unlike any since the end of the Cold War. The 2025 National Security Strategy tightens the definition of vital interests, reorients national defense toward a revitalized industrial base and homeland protection, and places greater expectations on allies to shoulder regional burdens. By design, it moves the United States away from open-ended expeditionary campaigns and toward a more disciplined, selective posture abroad. The document explicitly frames this shift as a response to domestic demands for restraint, fiscal pressure, and the recognition that the United States cannot and should not police the international system alone.
Days later, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth reinforced this direction at the Reagan National Defense Forum, announcing the end of “undefined wars” and promising a new era of clarity in objectives, timelines, and exit strategies in the use of force. His remarks signaled to allies and adversaries alike that Washington intends to be more judicious about when and where it fights—and far more skeptical about long-duration stability operations.
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