George Friedman
The release of the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy has brought into focus a fundamental tension that has been simmering since before President Donald Trump took office: the understanding between the United States and Europe that the geopolitical system that emerged from World War II was to be permanent. The National Security Strategy essentially says that this geopolitical relationship is obsolete, resulting in a sense that the U.S. has betrayed Europe. Thus is Europe’s crisis. In assuming that U.S. security guarantees were an enduring feature of global geopolitics, the Continent, as a whole, has made little effort to guarantee its own security.
U.S. guarantees were a direct byproduct of World War II. After 1945, the Soviet Union occupied and installed communist regimes in Eastern Europe. U.S. and British allies occupied Western Europe and formed a variety of democratic systems. The division left Western Europe extremely vulnerable to Soviet military action.
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