Salman Rafi Sheikh
For nearly a decade, Washington has bet that economic pressure could slow China’s rise. Tariffs were supposed to discipline Beijing, weaken its export engine and restore US leverage. That bet failed. China, driven to export partly by domestic over-investment and weak internal demand, absorbed the shock and adjusted, recording an unprecedented US$ 1.19–1.20 trillion trade surplus, the largest ever for a major economy.
But the more important story is what comes next. As trade barriers lose their coercive power in a fragmented, multipolar economy, the US is shifting the battlefield. Power is moving away from tariffs and toward force, from trade rules to direct control over geography, resources and security. This shift exposes a deeper imbalance between the two powers. China’s strengths remain overwhelmingly economic; America’s comparative advantage lies elsewhere. The first round of competition was fought with tariffs. The second will be fought with force.
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