Fatemeh Aman
For much of the past two decades, regional diplomacy on Afghanistan rested on the belief that outside engagement could gradually stabilize the country. That assumption shaped how neighboring states justified political, economic, and security involvement, even when progress remained limited.
Today, that framework is weakened. Afghanistan’s neighbors largely no longer base their policies on expectations of reform or reintegration. What has replaced it is a narrower, more cautious objective: limiting exposure to instability rather than attempting to change conditions within Afghanistan.
This shift reflects more than temporary fatigue. What has changed is the disappearance of any belief that engagement can alter the Taliban regime’s internal trajectory in the near term. Regional states still engage, but with fewer illusions. The aim is no longer to stabilize Afghanistan itself. It is to manage the effects of its continued fragility. Containment, in this context, is a policy intended to reduce the spillover costs of Afghanistan’s instability without assuming responsibility for the country’s internal political settlement.
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