Robert A. Manning
Every year since 2017, we have given our predictions for the greatest threats facing the world. If some of the top risks this year seem to echo those we anticipated for 2025, it is not that they are static, but that the peril continues, without reaching a denouement. The risks of a Trump presidency we feared have come faster and thicker than we envisioned of Gaza, Ukraine, and climate. China and Taiwan are not among the top geopolitical risks, as we judge 2026 is unlikely to see tensions rise to that level in the aftermath of the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The world remains in a protracted interregnum, still unsettled, fragmenting, but no less contested. The National Security Strategy makes the U.S. retreat from primacy official: “The days of the United States propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over.” The old neoliberal rules-based architecture is decomposing, power diffusing, and much of the world is searching for new multilateral arrangements to act as a buffer against three predatory, revisionist major powers.
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