Lawrence Freedman
Once again the US has undertaken a military operation that was effectively executed in support of an uncertain political objective. A dramatic first step has been taken without the second step being at all clear. The operation was done at the behest of the Department of Justice to take by force two people accused of pushing drugs into the US. This is not the same as a regime change in Venezuela. Yet President Trump has spoken as if regime change has already happened, confusing matters by then adding that there could be a ‘second wave’ of intervention if it turns out the old regime was still in charge and making its own decisions.
The Panama Precedent
We can start with the obvious precedent. Exactly 36 years ago, on 3 January 1990, General Manuel Noriega, the Panamanian dictator, surrendered to US forces and was flown to Miami where he was put on trial. Noriega had never won even a rigged election himself. He ruled through puppet presidents. He saw off several attempted coups and, in September 1989, annulled elections which his party had comprehensively lost. In his time he had been a CIA asset and during the Reagan administration’s first term sided with the US against the left-wing government in Nicaragua and with the right-wing government in El Salvador. But his involvement in the drug trade caused his relations to sour with the US. He ignored diplomatic and legal pressures and then angered the US even more when he shifted sides in regional geopolitics by
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