John Liu
When China’s biggest artificial intelligence players gathered for a landmark meeting in Beijing in January, one question was in the spotlight: What are the chances of a Chinese AI firm overtaking US frontrunners in the next three to five years?
The answer from a top AI scientist present at the gathering was surprisingly blunt: “Below 20 percent,” said Justin Lin, technical lead for Chinese tech giant Alibaba’s Qwen AI models. “And I think 20 percent is already very optimistic.”
The sobering assessment stood in stark contrast to a year of headlines celebrating China’s AI boom. Since little-known startup DeepSeek shocked the world with a powerful AI model it said was built at a fraction of the cost of American equivalents, Chinese companies have topped global downloads for freely-available-to-use models and raised huge sums in market debuts.
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