Carolina Drüten
Imagine Ukraine is forced into a peace deal later this year. In the aftermath, Russian troops conduct military exercises in neighboring Belarus, then stay put, massed along the Lithuanian border despite Moscow’s assurances that they would be pulling out.
A video begins circulating online, later identified as fake. It appears to show German soldiers stationed in Lithuania abusing Russian-speaking teenagers. Soon after, a cyberattack hits Germany’s savings banks, knocking large numbers of ATMs offline. In Vilnius, Lithuania’s government issues a warning: Russian troops could cross the border to the NATO country, a move that would test the alliance to its core.
And what if the United States hesitated?
Many security experts believe such a scenario is plausible, particularly as President Donald Trump signals that Europe must shoulder more of its own defense and as Russia seems intent on re-establishing itself as Europe’s dominant power.
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