Vladislav Gorin
The resumption of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi has sparked renewed hopes for a resolution to the conflict. With both sides exhausted by four years of war, the main obstacle to a ceasefire appears to be a territorial dispute over a small part of the Donbas, the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area. But while the territorial issue is admittedly important to the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main condition, even if not formulated so explicitly in any of the draft agreements, remains nothing short of regime change in Kyiv.
The composition of the delegations in Abu Dhabi, as well as the absence of leaks that could undermine dialogue, create the impression that work on a peace agreement is genuinely progressing. The delegations are headed not by politicians or propagandists, but by representatives of the military intelligence services. On the Ukrainian side is Kyrylo Budanov, the former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate who was recently appointed head of the presidential administration. On the Russian side is Igor Kostyukov, head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff.
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