12 February 2026

Will the United States Attack Iran?

Ravi Agrawal

Last month, after the United States toppled and captured the leader of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, there was an immediate expectation that the White House would try something similar in Iran. But President Donald Trump reportedly held back partly because he didn’t have enough military assets in the Middle East. That is now changing. In recent weeks, the Pentagon has stationed a carrier strike group and missile defense systems in the region, even as diplomacy between Washington and Tehran has ramped up.

Will Trump actually pull the trigger? To understand his motivations and constraints, I spoke with a leading Iran expert, Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on FP Live. Subscribers can watch the full conversation on the video box atop this page, or download the free FP Live podcast. What follows here is a condensed and lightly edited transcript.

No comments: