Ravi Agrawal
India and Pakistan are once again at each other’s throats. Following a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22, New Delhi launched coordinated attacks this week that struck deeper into Pakistani territory than at any point in the last five decades. Islamabad is now threatening to retaliate. An optimistic reading of the situation could be that this has all happened before: The two rivals fought full-scale wars in 1947-48, 1965, and 1971 and have engaged in several major skirmishes since the 1990s, when they declared themselves as nuclear powers. In each case, and especially since enjoying the shield of a nuclear deterrent, the two nations found ways to eventually pull back and accept a stalemate over the disputed territory of Kashmir.
There is a more worrying prospect this time around. The world in 2025 looks very different than it did before: The United States appears disinterested in new foreign wars, major powers are tied up in conflicts on other continents, and multilateral organizations such as the United Nations have seen their credibility erode. As a result, international mediation that was instrumental in years past now seems less meaningful. India and Pakistan have also followed sharply different trajectories since their last serious conflict in 1999. At the turn of the millennium, India’s GDP was about five times that of Pakistan. Today, it is nearly 11 times larger. Greater economic clout has not led to a commensurate military advantage for India, but it has fanned a heady confidence among its citizens, along with a clamor for action. Israel’s overwhelming response to the Oct. 7, 2023, attack led by Hamas has also strengthened New Delhi’s assessment that other powers can’t—or won’t—stop it from exercising its right to defend itself. In Pakistan, meanwhile, the usually quiet army chief, Asim Munir, has become increasingly public-facing, suggesting a military climbdown may be more difficult to accomplish.
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