23 December 2025

Pakistan’s IMF Program is Buying Time. Markets Want To Know What Comes Next.

Amer Kayani

Pakistan has just cleared another International Monetary Fund (IMF) review, and on paper the news looks good. Growth is back, inflation has come down from painful highs, and the country has even posted its first current account surplus in 14 years. But for ordinary Pakistanis and a global audience, the real question is not “Is the crisis over?” but “Can this fragile stability last, and will it ever translate into better lives?”

Over the past few years, Pakistan has lurched from one near‑crisis to another. Foreign exchange reserves fell to dangerously low levels, inflation surged, and there were real fears of default. The latest IMF report marks a turning point of sorts. It says the economy grew by about 3 percent in the last fiscal year, with a slightly higher rate expected next year if current policies continue. Inflation, which had been near 30 percent, has dropped sharply, even though recent floods have pushed food prices up again.

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