Kelly Atkinson, Tahina Montoya, Michael S. Pollard
China is experiencing declining birth rates and a rapidly aging population, resulting in a shrinking workforce and increased pressure on social services. The Chinese government has implemented a range of pronatalist policies aimed at reversing fertility decline, including the universal two-child policy in 2015 and the three-child policy in 2021, yet these policy measures have not corrected China’s plummeting total fertility rate or birth rate. The authors of this report assess China’s policy responses to demographic challenges from 2015 to 2025 and consider how China’s experience can inform U.S. policy responses to fertility decline and related demographic challenges.
Key Findings
China’s implementation of pronatalist policies has been highly unevenChina’s pronatalist policies have not reversed fertility decline or increased population growth to a sustainable rate, demonstrating the limits of state-led interventions in family decisionmaking.
China’s implementation of national fertility policies is highly uneven across regions, with national directives producing a patchwork of local practices that reflects administrative fragmentation and variable capacity.
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