Siamak Naficy
It is often said that peace between geopolitical competitors is not an agreement, but an intermission. Between one war and the next, capitals across the Middle East rehearse familiar scripts: missiles are replaced, alliances are recalibrated, and ghosts of deterrence float through every briefing room. Gaza bleeds quietly; Lebanon hums under the occupation that was never really lifted; and the Gulf monarchies, forever hedging, test how far wealth can insulate them from catastrophe.
The United States, for its part, still plays its strange double role — the restrainer and the accelerant. A superpower that deploys force to prevent war, but whose very presence guarantees that war will always remain an option.
The world watches the Strait of Hormuz for clues to the next shock. But if we’re honest, the question is no longer if the next Israel–Iran war will come. The question is when, and whether the next one will be the last that the region can survive.
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