In today’s fast-changing operational environment, our Great Power rivals understand us better than we understand them. America still has the most powerful military in the world, but adversaries have realized that they can operate in the “gray zone” between war and peace without incurring America’s wrath.
Anybody who had experience in operational planning during the Global War on Terror (GWOT) saw this firsthand: endless PowerPoint decks, indecipherable flowcharts, and diagrams that tried unsuccessfully to paint a comprehensive picture of complex concepts, from counterinsurgency dynamics to Department of Defense (DoD) procurement processes.
Ultimately, these attempts to create an easy, one-size-fits-all guide to responding to hypothetical events did more to confuse and waste time than they ever did to help neutralize terrorist threats. Unfortunately, we are now repeating this mistake as we shift our focus toward Great Power Competition with Russia, China, and Iran.
Why it Matters: Assessing the Future Battlefield
Like it or not, our adversaries understand the vulnerability inherent in this approach. They may not be comfortable facing us in a conventional war now, but political warfare is enabling them to tilt the potential future battlefield in their favor. At some point, the advantage they’re accumulating could render us unable to act, whether due to lack of political legitimacy, a weakened international position, or both.
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