Alina Polyakova and Christopher Walker
What might Europe look like if the fighting finally ends in Ukraine? Would we return to a pre-2022 continent of mutual suspicion but broad economic ties to Russia? Or something very different and even more concerning?
That, of course, depends on the exact terms agreed by the warring parties and their various backers. But any deal favorable to Vladimir Putin, a deal in which Ukraine effectively loses its sovereignty, would also be warmly welcomed by China as an endorsement of its efforts to tilt the outcome.
China has gambled on Putin and would expect to collect its winnings. And given the now-extraordinary mismatch in power between the two countries — China’s national wealth is more than eight times greater than Russia’s — Putin’s diminished and dependent country would have little choice but to agree.
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