Justin Bronk
In 2020, RUSI published papers on the potential threats posed to Western forces by Russian and Chinese combat air capabilities and ground-based air defence (GBAD) systems. Since these studies were published, both Russian and Chinese air power capabilities have evolved significantly.
The aim of this Insights Paper is not to present a comprehensive analysis of the various types, weapons systems and tactics operated by the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) and People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). Instead, it provides a succinct outline of the ways in which the threat posed to Western air power capabilities by Russian and Chinese forces respectively has changed over the five years since 2020. As a starting point, readers are invited to read the two RUSI papers from 2020, mentioned in the paragraph above, for an overview of the primary aircraft types and GBAD systems operated by each nation. This Insights Paper demonstrates that in 2025, Chinese air power in particular poses a fundamentally different level of threat to traditional US dominance in the air domain than it did in 2020. Russian air power has evolved in a different way and to a lesser extent – its evolution is driven largely by the pressures of Russia’s long war against Ukraine. However, Russian air power still represents a greater threat to Western air power capabilities in Europe than it did prior to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
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