28 January 2026

High stakes but low expectations for Ukraine talks with Russia and US


Sarah Rainsford

Negotiators from Russia, Ukraine and the US have been meeting in Abu Dhabi for their first trilateral talks since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But whilst the talks take a new format, the core differences remain the same. The stakes are high, but expectations are limited.

Donald Trump is pushing hard for a peace deal in Ukraine – the one he promised but hasn't yet delivered – and he said this week that the two sides would be "stupid" if they couldn't agree. But despite some intense shuttle diplomacy by his own envoys, they are hosting the first trilateral talks involving Ukrainian and Russian negotiators with some major issues still unresolved. Ukraine is engaging with the process because it wants peace more than anyone, but also because it needs to keep the US onside. It learned that lesson the hard way last year, when Donald Trump briefly suspended intelligence sharing and military aid.

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