Cost constraints on the US–Russia strategic nuclear balance after New START

Alexander K. Bollfrass

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The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, New START, the last legally binding bilateral treaty limiting the United States’ and Russia’s strategic nuclear forces, expired on 5 February 2026. Under its central limits, each side was restricted to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems.

Despite both countries’ leaders expressing interest in maintaining New START’s ceilings as recently as late 2025, no new agreement was reached. As a result, the bilateral strategic nuclear balance is now unregulated for the first time since 1972, leaving both sides without a formal mechanism to discuss a range of issues on their respective agendas. While each is modernising its strategic forces, cost constraints and numerical parity between the two suggest a major build-up in warhead numbers is unlikely in the short term.