Sam Winter-Levy, Anton Leicht
The future of artificial intelligence will be controlled by the United States and China. The two countries employ 70 percent of the world’s top machine learning researchers, command 90 percent of global computing power, and attract the vast majority of AI investment—more than twice the combined total of every other state combined. In past technological revolutions, powers that were not at the frontier could gradually adopt new capabilities and catch up. But the AI revolution will be different, locking those countries into a strategic trap that could consign much of the world to technological vassalage.
This trap particularly affects what might be called the AI middle powers: countries such as France, India, and the United Kingdom, which have substantial state capacity and economic resources but lack the scale, capital, energy, and computing power to build frontier AI systems on their own. These powers face three principal challenges. First, their access to frontier AI capabilities is subject to the whims of policymakers in Washington and Beijing. Second, they remain exposed to AI’s disruptive effects—including job losses, social upheaval, and the expansion of AI-enhanced cybercrime—whether or not they share in its benefits. Third, they lack the leverage and the policy tools necessary to shape AI’s development or manage its consequences.
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