11 March 2026

(Early) Lessons from Iran

Louise Boucher

When Israel scrambles 200 fighter jets and the UAE intercepts >90% of incoming threats, it is tempting to conclude that the old model still works: Western-built shields performed.

But the operation also demonstrated that the rules of aerial warfare have changed. Two signals stand out: 1) the economics of drone swarms have broken the logic of traditional missile-based defence, and 2) hypersonic weapons have crossed a price and manoeuvrability threshold that changes who can field them.

€25,000 Shaheds were used extensively to saturate air defences over Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Iran launched them in packs of 5 to 10 — not necessarily to hit high-value targets, but to force the use of Patriot interceptors at $4 million a shot. This cleared the way for the hypersonic missiles that followed.

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