Liam Karr
Key Takeaway: The Yemeni Houthis and Iran could target Emirati, Israeli, or US positions in the Horn of Africa and across the continent as part of the ongoing Iranian retaliatory campaign. The Iran war will likely have short-term effects on disputes in the Horn of Africa that are linked to Red Sea competition among Middle East actors, such as the Sudanese civil war and potential conflict in northern Ethiopia, although it is unclear whether the war will accelerate or dampen conflict in the short term. It is unclear how the Gulf states will prioritize countering any shared threat emanating from Iran versus their Red Sea competition in the long term, and Iran’s regional threat risk will heavily influence this decision.
The Houthis could target Emirati, Israeli, or US military positions in the Horn of Africa if they join Iran’s regional retaliatory campaign. Iran has attacked Israel, US bases in the Middle East, and all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in response to the US-Israel strikes.[1] The United Arab Emirates (UAE), followed by Kuwait and Qatar, has predominantly borne the brunt of the hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones launched at the Arabian Peninsula. The campaign aims to exploit relatively soft GCC defenses compared with Israel and US bases in the Arabian Peninsula to force the GCC to pressure the United States to cease attacks on Iran and enter talks, despite the GCC countries refusing Israel and the United States permission to use their airspace to attack Iran.[2]
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