Andrew Leber
Amid the open-ended war that the United States and Israel kicked off this weekend, each of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has been targeted—and in some cases hit—by Iranian drone and missile strikes. The strikes sparked fires near luxury hotels in Dubai, caused panic at Kuwait’s international airport, and put Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery out of commission. In an interview with CNN, President Donald Trump called the attacks on the Gulf “probably the biggest surprise” of the war so far.
It shouldn’t have been surprising. During the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran in the president’s first term, the Islamic Republic backed attacks on oil tankers near the Persian Gulf as well as Saudi oil infrastructure, each of which dampened GCC support for overt confrontation of Iran.
Since then, and especially since a 2023 rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the GCC states broadly prioritized diplomacy and dialogue in their dealings with Tehran. Although all of the Gulf states host U.S. military personnel in one way or another, each tried to publicly distance itself from U.S. and Israeli military action in the runup to the current hostilities (despite suggestions of private rhetoric to the contrary).
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