George Friedman
We have written a great deal on the evolution of U.S.-China relations, and we expect them to evolve further after the upcoming summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump. We have also written on the evolution of relations between Japan and Australia, driven in part by the U.S. and China. Last week, a significant event enhanced Japanese-Australian ties: The government in Canberra signed a deal to order 11 frigates from Japan. More, Australia announced recently the largest-ever increase in its defense budget, while Japan has dramatically increased its own defense budget.
Both of these developments are predicated on U.S. policies to reduce involvement in the Eastern Hemisphere. They are the same policies on which Washington’s efforts toward accommodation with China are based. Now that the U.S. has attacked Iran, it’s hard to see America’s presence in the Eastern Hemisphere declining. But, assuming it’s part of the process of disengagement, the attack is meant to eliminate the future need to be concerned with Iran’s nuclear capability. The basic principle of limiting U.S. entanglement in the Eastern Hemisphere adheres to the administration’s stated priorities in its National Security Strategy.
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